Geopolitical crisis triggers relentless rally: gold and silver break through highs, palladium prices up 107%

The Global Alarm Fuels the Flight to Safe-Haven Assets

Recent international tensions have not only dominated headlines: they are completely reshaping capital flows in commodity markets. The situation in Venezuela, ongoing conflicts, and macroeconomic uncertainties have driven investors toward protective assets, turning precious metals into a survival resource.

On Wednesday morning, the rally shows no signs of slowing down. Gold has broken through the $4,510 per ounce mark, establishing itself as the ultimate safe-haven asset. Meanwhile, silver continues to surprise: it has just surpassed $71.80, obliterating previous highs with a confidence that leaves traders breathless. At the same time, new palladium price data show an extraordinary performance: the metal has reached $1,897, marking a +107% increase since the beginning of the year.

When the Dollar Weakens, Metals Take Off

The structural weakness of the US dollar is the true driver of this rise. The dollar index fell 0.36% on Tuesday alone, reaching its lowest since October 3 at 97.85. Forecasts for December predict an 1.4% decline, the worst since August, while the annual decrease is expected to hit -9.6%, the largest since 2017.

What is happening? Despite the US GDP in the third quarter showing a +4.3% annualized growth (above expectations of 3.3%), the market simply ignored this positive news. Focus remains on the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts: the probability that the Fed will not act by the end of January is 87%, but rate futures suggest the first cut could materialize in June 2026, with two 25 basis point reductions expected that year.

Add to this the US consumer confidence index, which plummeted to 89.1 in December (versus 91.0), and you have the perfect recipe for a weakened dollar and soaring precious metals.

Platinum and Palladium: The Hidden Giants of the Rally

While gold and silver capture attention, platinum and palladium are writing equally impressive chapters. Platinum jumped 7.5% on Tuesday, reaching $2,334 during Wednesday’s Asian session, with a weekly gain of 18% and a monthly increase of 39%. Year-to-date, +155% reflects industrial demand that shows no signs of weakening.

Meanwhile, palladium prices tell a similar story: the metal hit three-year highs at $1,897, with weekly gains exceeding 10% and an annual surge of 107%. Seven consecutive trading sessions of gains have set the stage for this final push of the year.

Underlying demand remains robust: automotive and electronics sectors continue to rely on these metals as critical components of their supply chains.

The Combined Effect: Silver Driven to 150%

Among all protagonists, silver perhaps has the most sensational story. Since the start of the year, it has accumulated an impressive +150%, with December alone contributing +27%. On Tuesday, it broke the historic $71 threshold, closing at $71.06 with an intraday high of $71.55.

Zaner Metals analysts suggest that the next target level could be $75, although end-of-year profit-taking might trigger a short-term tactical correction.

The Context: When Geopolitics Wins Over Macro

The push is not solely driven by economic numbers. Wednesday morning essentially marks Christmas Eve: many Western markets will close early or shut entirely, creating a liquidity environment that amplifies volatility. But beneath this surface of technical data lie real strategic decisions.

Russian diplomatic warnings to other Latin American countries, military movements in the Caribbean, and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine have created an uncertainty backdrop that asset managers cannot ignore. When political horizons darken, precious metals become the universal language of prudence.

What to Expect Now

The limited trading window of the Christmas week could cause amplified directional swings or sudden reversals. However, the structural trend remains firmly bullish as long as the following conditions persist: unresolved geopolitical tensions, a weak dollar, and expectations of monetary easing by the Fed.

For investors, the picture is complex: palladium prices will likely continue to follow the cycle of industrial demand, while gold and silver will remain tied to risk aversion sentiment. Monitoring Fed announcements and geopolitical developments remains the top priority to capture the next significant moves.

At 08:04 (UTC+8), gold is quoted at $4,510.34 per ounce. The game is not over.