ETH Technical Outlook: Structured Recovery Within a Broader Corrective Phase

Ethereum is currently stabilizing after a deep corrective move that followed a sharp rejection from the $4,450–$4,950 macro supply zone (0.786–1 Fib). That rejection confirmed a distribution top and triggered a strong bearish continuation into the $2,620 macro demand area. From this long-term demand, ETH has started to rebound, printing higher lows and forming a rounded recovery structure, suggesting early accumulation rather than panic-driven selling. Momentum has improved on lower timeframes, but the higher-timeframe trend has not yet fully transitioned back to bullish.

EMA Structure (Bearish Bias, Improving Momentum)
20 EMA: 3,188
50 EMA: 3,165
100 EMA: 3,290
200 EMA: 3,338

ETH has reclaimed the 20 and 50 EMA, signaling short-term bullish momentum and improving buyer control. However, price remains below the 100 and 200 EMA, keeping the medium- to long-term structure corrective. The $3,290–$3,340 zone acts as a strong dynamic resistance cluster, where sellers are likely to defend aggressively.

Fibonacci & Price Structure
ETH is holding just above the 0.236 Fib at $3,174, which now acts as a key structural pivot. Acceptance above this level supports continuation toward the $3,514–$3,790 zone, where the 0.382–0.5 Fib levels align with EMA resistance. A failure to hold above $3,050–$3,000 would weaken the recovery narrative and reopen downside risk toward the $2,850–$2,620 macro demand region.

Momentum Context
RSI (14) is near 60, indicating improving momentum and growing buyer participation. RSI in the upper mid-range often suggests short-term consolidation near resistance before a directional move.

Key Levels to Watch
Resistance: $3,290–$3,340 → $3,514 → $3,790 → $4,065
Support: $3,174 → $3,050–$3,000 → $2,850–$2,620

Summary
ETH is attempting a structured recovery after defending a critical long-term demand zone. Short-term momentum is constructive, but the broader market structure remains corrective unless price can decisively reclaim the $3,514–$3,790 region. Until then, upside moves are likely to face resistance, keeping ETH in a range-bound recovery phase rather than a confirmed bullish reversal.

$ETH