Based on the Volume/OI ratio, the predicted market generally stays below 1 and even lower, but Perp DEX can often exceed 10. If interacting with the market using the high-frequency opening and closing positions typical of Perp DEX, one might suffer significant losses and may not gain much profit.
The Volume (Avg 7d)/OI ratios are as follows: Opinion: 95.16% Kalshi: 85.52% Predict Fun: 42.18% Polymarket: 33.61%
Opinion has the highest ratio, which I guess is because it is currently in the sprint before TGE. A notable indicator is that Opinion's weekly and monthly trading volume growth both exceed 30%. In terms of weekly growth, it is significantly higher than the other two new platforms, Predict Fun and Probable.
Kalshi's characteristic is its focus on sports events. Trading volume for sports events tends to concentrate during and just before the game, making the volume more dynamic and explosive. Therefore, the static indicator ratio like OI tends to be higher.
Using the mature Polymarket as a benchmark, Predict Fun's ratio is slightly higher, which is reasonable for a platform in the early growth stage. For Polymarket, which has nearly zero fees, purely increasing trading volume does not directly generate revenue. In contrast, real-world influence, brand value, and ecosystem expansion are more important sources of long-term value.
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Based on the Volume/OI ratio, the predicted market generally stays below 1 and even lower, but Perp DEX can often exceed 10. If interacting with the market using the high-frequency opening and closing positions typical of Perp DEX, one might suffer significant losses and may not gain much profit.
The Volume (Avg 7d)/OI ratios are as follows:
Opinion: 95.16%
Kalshi: 85.52%
Predict Fun: 42.18%
Polymarket: 33.61%
Opinion has the highest ratio, which I guess is because it is currently in the sprint before TGE. A notable indicator is that Opinion's weekly and monthly trading volume growth both exceed 30%. In terms of weekly growth, it is significantly higher than the other two new platforms, Predict Fun and Probable.
Kalshi's characteristic is its focus on sports events. Trading volume for sports events tends to concentrate during and just before the game, making the volume more dynamic and explosive. Therefore, the static indicator ratio like OI tends to be higher.
Using the mature Polymarket as a benchmark, Predict Fun's ratio is slightly higher, which is reasonable for a platform in the early growth stage. For Polymarket, which has nearly zero fees, purely increasing trading volume does not directly generate revenue. In contrast, real-world influence, brand value, and ecosystem expansion are more important sources of long-term value.