Analysis: Bitcoin's correlation with gold has turned negative, and historical signals indicate BTC could rise by at least 50%

On January 14, data showed that the 52-week correlation between Bitcoin and gold has dropped to zero for the first time since mid-2022, and may turn negative by the end of January. Historically, in similar situations, Bitcoin has typically risen an average of 56% within about two months, corresponding to a price range of approximately $144,000 to $150,000. Analysis indicates that divergence between Bitcoin and gold trends often signals a strong rally for BTC. The current macro environment is also seen as bullish, including a rebound in global liquidity (M2 growth) and the nearing end of Federal Reserve quantitative tightening (QT). Matt Hougan, Head of Research at Bitwise, stated that a new cycle of global monetary easing has begun, which could continue to drive Bitcoin prices upward until 2026. From a cyclical perspective, analysts believe Bitcoin’s trend is replicating the 2020–2021 bull market path, having shifted from a long-term consolidation phase into the early stage of a “quasi-parabolic” rally. If this fractal pattern continues, the target price for BTC in this cycle could be around $150,000.