Why can memory increase 4 times?

Here's a possibly uncomfortable but logically self-consistent answer:
👉 Because someone,
using money that doesn't really exist,
bought memory that hasn't been produced yet,
planning to install it into the same unbuilt GPU,
then placed it into an unfinished data center,
hoping that electricity, which may never arrive,
will meet a demand that doesn't actually exist in reality,
thus calculating—
profits that are mathematically impossible to realize.
If you think this paragraph is surreal,
then it means you've grasped the key point.

This round of memory surge,
is not fundamentally “demand > supply,”
but 👇
a price signal that has decoupled from the real value signal.
What the market sees is:
👉 Memory prices rising
👉 Orders flooding in
👉 Strong AI demand
But if you break down the chain, you'll find:

Many orders are pre-locking capacity

Many demands are anticipatory

Many purchases are panic hoarding + speculative holdings

Prices are rising,
but “who will use it, when, and whether it can be used up,”
no one can say for sure.

Of course, you can also look at this from a different perspective.
An optimistic view:
This mechanism of “air orders + overextended expectations,”
is indeed doing one thing👇
👉 crazily siphoning global resources, accelerating AI infrastructure deployment
Money, capacity, computing power, engineers, capital,
are all being pushed toward AI en masse.
Whether there's a bubble or not,
the tech curve has been forcibly steepened.

A pessimistic view:
When rising prices are uniformly interpreted as “strong demand,”
rather than “crowded positions,”
it often means—
the cycle has entered a dangerous zone.
Because true end-user demand
never expresses itself in this way.

If you find this storyline a bit familiar,
let's directly compare it to an old friend👇
Lithium carbonate price cycle (2020–2025):

2020.06 | Cycle bottom: 44,000 / ton

2022.11 | Historical peak: 597,000 / ton

2025.06 | Double bottom: 58,400 / ton

2025.11 | Rebound to date: 87,700 / ton

The path is very standard👇
bottom → extreme optimism → supply-demand mismatch → bottom again
A complete,
textbook-level crazy cycle.

So the current question is not:
👉 Will memory still rise?
But rather:
👉 Is the current price,
truly reflecting actual usage,
or is it reflecting
a collective anxiety where everyone dares not hold cash?
History won't simply repeat,
but in “resources + new narratives + leverage expectations,”
it has never missed a beat.