2026-01-09 06:24:34

Prediction markets have significant differences in their legal status within the global regulatory framework. In the United States, such products are usually regulated as financial derivatives. But the situation is completely different in China — the legal judgments in mainland China and most other countries are basically the same, all recognizing prediction markets as gambling activities.

What does this mean? In other words, if a project team operates a prediction market in mainland China, legally it is almost directly equivalent to running a casino. Besides the legal risks associated with the operation itself, profits gained through charging fees, providing liquidity, and other methods will also be considered illegal income. For practitioners, this is not only a compliance issue but also involves criminal liability. Therefore, any project involving prediction markets needs to have a clear understanding of the local legal framework, especially to be cautious of legal applicability issues arising from cross-border operations.

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GasFeeCryer

· 54m ago

Wow, China directly treats prediction markets as gambling, so you really have to be careful. Things that are legal to play with in the US become criminal cases here; cross-border operations are really tricky. Projects that want to earn transaction fees, now they need to think carefully. Oh my, is the legal framework in mainland China so strict? No wonder so many projects have moved away. Basically, it's about operating in different places according to local laws; otherwise, it's really easy to run into trouble.

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RamenDeFiSurvivor

· 01-09 06:54

There's really no way to play here in China, they just treat it as a crime like a casino... --- So, if the US can play in China, it must be illegal. Cross-border activities are really a minefield. --- Ah, charging fees is considered illegal income? That's outrageous. --- Another story that looks like finance but is actually gambling; the compliance costs are too high. --- No wonder mainland projects have to go overseas; the legal differences are just too great. --- Once criminal liability kicks in, it's really not playable. Better to focus on the US market. --- Prediction markets are a policy minefield in China; you can't touch them.

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CryptoGoldmine

· 01-09 06:53

The prediction market is indeed a red line domestically, and this understanding is very important. However, from an arbitrage perspective, the difficulty level and ROI returns of cross-border operations are not actually aligned. Instead of struggling with this area, it's better to focus on fields with higher certainty.

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GhostInTheChain

· 01-09 06:42

Ha, China's one-size-fits-all approach is ruthless. Predictive markets are treated like gambling directly. --- So doing this in the country is basically a suicidal startup? A bit crazy. --- Cross-border operations sound simple, but there are many pitfalls... --- It can pass in the US, but here it's just a casino. The difference is really big. --- Basically, all illegal gains are confiscated, and you have to take responsibility. Who dares to touch it? --- Wait, providing liquidity also counts as illegal gains? Then this business can't be done. --- No wonder there's no formal team in this area; it's all about skirting the line. --- Regulations really vary by region; the same thing can have completely opposite values.

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GrayscaleArbitrageur

· 01-09 06:39

It's the same old story. To put it plainly, entering the prediction market domestically is a dead end.

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LiquidatedAgain

· 01-09 06:32

Yet again, another "compliance" dream is about to shatter... Playing with this stuff domestically is like dancing on the edge of a cliff. No matter how high the transaction fee profit is, it can't outweigh the criminal risk.

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