Is the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut schedule finalized? Market speculation before non-farm payroll data

【Blockchain Rhythm】How will the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut pace in 2025 unfold? This question is currently influencing the pricing logic of the crypto market.

According to the latest market expectations, the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates twice by 25 basis points this year, with the first rate cut likely to start around late April. This expectation has become quite solid—unless the upcoming non-farm payrolls data shows “significant” volatility, it will be difficult to change the market’s established perception.

Goldman Sachs’s latest research predicts that the upcoming December non-farm payroll increase will be about 70,000 jobs, which is generally in line with widespread expectations. From the perspective of the stock and crypto markets, a range of 70,000 to 100,000 jobs is actually most comfortable—it reflects ongoing economic expansion without reigniting inflation concerns or undermining the rate cut cycle expectations. Such data precisely indicates that the US economy is gradually slowing down rather than sharply stagnating.

But don’t overlook extreme scenarios:

If the data falls below 50,000 jobs, it could be interpreted as employment growth below a stable economic level, causing investors to worry about a sharp economic downturn. Conversely, if the figure jumps above 125,000 jobs, the market might reassess the timing of the Fed’s rate cuts, pushing the first cut from April to June.

For crypto market participants, all of this is crucial—the Federal Reserve’s policy expectations directly impact liquidity and the attractiveness of risk assets. The current market pricing is already quite firm; short-term non-farm payroll data is unlikely to change the overall picture, but if surprises occur, market reactions will be swift.