Want to survive long-term in the crypto world without getting dizzy from all the fancy technical analysis? Actually, there's a very simple approach, and you might laugh when I say it—it's about simplifying to the extreme.

I've observed many people who lose money, and their problem isn't that they can't analyze; it's that their analysis is too complicated, and they end up not executing at all. So I gradually simplify, and in the end, only three core logics remain: follow the trend, allocate positions in stages, and use moving averages as decision-makers.

**Step 1: Only look at trend direction when choosing coins**

My coin screening is very straightforward—if the coin is rising or sideways, and the 30-day moving average hasn't clearly turned downward, it's worth paying attention to. Once the trend turns down, I won't touch any story that sounds good. What's the benefit of doing this? Less fuss, and the probability of being right is higher when the direction is correct.

**Step 2: Buy in stages, never go all-in**

Divide your available capital into 3-5 parts, which is crucial. When the price first stabilizes above the short-term moving average, use the first part to test the waters. When the trend is confirmed (for example, a volume breakout), then slowly add with the second and third parts. What's the benefit of this? Even if your initial judgment is wrong, losses are controllable, and your mindset won't blow up.

**Step 3: Hold and sell based on moving averages**

The logic for holding is simple: if the price stays above the key moving average, hold firmly. Normal fluctuations like dips and retests are fine—don't panic. Selling is even more straightforward—if the price falls below the 5-day moving average, cut half your position; if it continues to fall below the 20-day or 60-day moving average, then just one word: exit. Don't give yourself any illusions.

This method may seem to lack technical complexity, but precisely this "stupidity" allows you to actually follow through. It helps filter out most emotional noise and useless operations.

The real key to surviving in the crypto world isn't some prediction skill for tops and bottoms, but a simple, reusable framework that can fight human nature. Don't always think about getting rich overnight; what's important is that you are present in every cycle. Time itself is the best leverage for ordinary people.