The recent Bitcoin market is playing out an interesting psychological showdown. On one side, options traders are pouring $2.86 million into Deribit, betting that Bitcoin will break through $100,000 by January 30; on the other side, data from the prediction platform Polymarket appears cold—at the same $150,000 price target, the probability assessment is only 21%.

Rewind to early January 2026. Bitcoin was hovering around $92,000, at a critical point. That $2.86 million order appeared, specifically targeting call options with a $100,000 strike price. This is not a small figure; it represents strong confidence from professional funds in a short-term breakout.

But looking at the prediction markets, the story changes. The same price target on Polymarket—"Bitcoin reaching $150,000 before 2027"—only carries a 21% probability. Two markets, one price, completely opposite expectations. What does this reflect?

Ultimately, the market is indeed changing. After the downturn at the end of 2025, the Bitcoin market is quietly recovering. The most pessimistic voices have noticeably diminished, although the overall structure still favors a bearish outlook, the most extreme short positions have significantly eased.

The options market best illustrates this. Funds are re-entering call options at the $100,000 key level, indicating that some participants are preparing for a genuine upward trend. According to Deribit data, open interest in Bitcoin call options expiring on January 30 with a $100,000 strike price is the highest, enough to show where the market’s focus lies.