Federal Reserve internal disagreements widen: Employment data may become the determining factor for Bitcoin liquidity

【BlockBeats】The latest remarks from a Federal Reserve official have attracted attention. On January 7, the official stated that the current interest rate policy is “overly tightening,” which is substantially dragging down the economy, and pointed out the possibility of a rate cut exceeding 100 basis points by 2026. This statement clearly leans dovish, contrasting sharply with some officials’ claims that policy is approaching neutrality, and also revealing that internal differences within the Federal Reserve regarding economic outlook are continuing to widen.

From a macro perspective, whether monetary policy is truly too tight ultimately depends on the actual condition of the labor market. In the coming week, the U.S. will release key indicators such as ADP, JOLTS, initial unemployment claims, and non-farm payrolls. The quality of these “employment check-up” reports will directly determine whether the Federal Reserve has reason to keep policy unchanged. If employment data remains strong, the case for pausing rate cuts will be solid; if the data weakens, those advocating aggressive easing may quickly see market responses.

The implication for the crypto market is that this kind of policy uncertainty itself is an important signal. Since the interest rate trajectory is still uncertain, market expectations for liquidity will be particularly sensitive, and short-term volatility is likely to increase. Conversely, if upcoming employment and inflation data both point to room for policy shifts, the market will reprice the medium- and long-term liquidity environment. At that point, assets like Bitcoin, which have “monetary attributes,” could receive structural support.

The core takeaway is quite simple: don’t just focus on a single official’s remarks; the key is to watch how policy disagreements and economic data interact. Whether employment data remains steady or weak will directly determine whether the market enters a “rate pause” mode or begins to price in “more substantial easing.” Crypto investors should keep a close eye on whether liquidity expectations undergo a substantive reversal, as this is the main driver of price movements.