Last night, the crypto market experienced another round of turbulence. Bitcoin and Ethereum fluctuated back and forth in a short period, causing the market volatility to significantly increase. Many traders' sentiments were somewhat shattered by this wave of行情. But this is not an unexpected event; frankly, it is the result of a macro outlook shift combined with technical adjustments, focusing on the release of accumulated pressures.

What are the underlying factors behind this行情? Let's analyze it from three perspectives: macro outlook, technical analysis, and trading strategies.

**The possibility of interest rate cuts opens up, and large investors seize the opportunity to rebalance their portfolios**

The direct cause of this intense volatility yesterday was the public statement by Federal Reserve official Mester. She indicated that there could be a cumulative 100 basis points of rate cuts by 2026. Once this statement was made, market expectations for easing policies were immediately ignited.

The initial reaction from funds was a strong push for Bitcoin to rise, with the price soaring to around $94,500. But the turnaround came very quickly—just at the peak of market enthusiasm, institutional funds began to exit en masse, selling pressure suddenly surged, and the行情 sharply reversed, dropping to $91,300 at one point in the early morning.

This "rally then dump" pattern actually explains a lot: the current big-money mentality in the market is conservative, defensive, and quick to take profits. When macro conditions are still unclear, institutional funds aim to leverage policy expectations as a hot spot to generate liquidity opportunities for cashing out, rather than continuing to increase leverage and bet on risky assets.

Moving forward, we need to pay close attention to macro news. Tonight’s ADP employment data and subsequent comments from Federal Reserve officials could directly influence market risk appetite.