Will this bull market hit a straight top? I’m skeptical. Instead of saying Bitcoin will rocket straight up, it’s more like a four-act play will unfold.
**Act 1: Testing New Highs**
Starting around 92,000, first probing the 95,000 to 100,000 range. There will definitely be several 5%-10% pullbacks in between, as the market digests the new highs. This phase can be a bit annoying but is quite normal—it’s just gradually accepting the new price level of "100,000." This stage will take about 1-2 months.
**Act 2: Plateau Period (The Most Frustrating Part)**
Once BTC stabilizes at 100,000, it’s likely to fluctuate between 100,000 and 125,000, with wide swings. You’ll see scenes like rising to 115,000 then crashing back to 90,000—that’s routine. During this phase, the bulls and bears are exchanging power, and altcoins are undergoing brutal shakeouts. This will last about 2-4 months, and it’s the most testing for your patience.
**Act 3: Deep Pullback**
Before hitting the top, there will be a downward move that looks like the "end of the bull market." Imagine a sharp drop from 120,000 straight down to 90,000-100,000—that’s quite terrifying. But this is the final shakeout phase, clearing out the last weak hands. Expect this to last 1-2 months.
**Act 4: Vertical Surge**
After the shakeout, the main rally begins. The trend shifts from a gentle slope to a steep incline, even approaching vertical. BTC could rapidly jump from the 100,000 zone to 150,000-180,000, while Ethereum surges to 9,000-12,000. The entire market will be gripped by FOMO, rising rapidly with wild volatility. This process might only take 1-3 months.
**Overall Rhythm Estimate**
From now until the expected top of the bull market (BTC in the 150,000-180,000 range), the core timeframe is about 6-9 months, more likely around 6 months.
**Final Words**
This analysis is a "map," not a "schedule." The key is to observe BTC’s reactions at support levels like 100,000, 120,000, and 90,000, to determine which act the market is in. That way, you won’t be scared into buying or selling during sudden surges or crashes. The last part of a bull market is the most turbulent—knowing roughly how it will twist and turn helps you stay steady on the ride.
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ForkMaster
· 8h ago
A four-act play? Sounds good, but I bet five bucks that most people will be washed out by the second act.
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LuckyBlindCat
· 01-08 14:32
A four-act play? Sounds good, but I bet there will be a fifth and sixth act with a black swan in between.
Wait, a drop from 120,000 back to 90,000, and you call that a shakeout? Bro, that's just a slaughterhouse.
No matter how you phrase it, it doesn't change the fact that no one can really hit the rhythm precisely; everyone is just a post-event armchair strategist.
This time, I want to see how you get repeatedly beaten between 115,000 and 90,000.
What's interesting is that when it really drops, everyone will start shouting about the bottom, only to continue losing money.
Six months? I think, maybe next month the second act will begin, or maybe we’ll wait two more months with no movement.
Honestly, the most frightening thing is these well-reasoned analyses; the more detailed, the easier to get proven wrong.
I don't really believe in the main upward wave; FOMO hype is actually the start of the bag-holding.
I've collected this map, but no one should use it as a navigation tool.
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LightningAllInHero
· 01-07 14:53
I read it carefully, and this analysis is quite reliable. The second act was the hardest to endure; you need to prepare yourself mentally.
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Baishilong
· 01-07 06:11
This year really has such a market trend, so just relax and wait 😂
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CoffeeNFTs
· 01-07 04:53
The analogy of a four-act play is pretty good, but I have a feeling that this time something might go wrong again.
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WagmiAnon
· 01-07 04:52
The theory of the four-act play sounds good, but I'm more concerned about which act we're in right now. It feels like I'm constantly being cut.
This platform phase really tests your mentality. I've already seen people疯狂抄底 and then疯狂割肉.
15 to 180,000? That's a bit optimistic. Does history just repeat itself like this?
During the third act's暴跌, I bet I would be hammered senseless. Anyway, I always act at the worst times.
Observing support levels is a good move, better than guessing blindly, but it's just too hard to execute.
I just want to know if we can really reach 150,000 this time. It feels like every time there's a grand narrative, but the results are never the same.
Six months, right? I'll place a pending order and wait. Anyway, that's all the idle money I have.
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FlashLoanLarry
· 01-07 04:42
The analogy of a four-act play is brilliant; I'm just worried that the horror of the third act might really make me cut my losses.
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defi_detective
· 01-07 04:40
Well... these four-act scripts sound comfortable, but I'm worried that during the performance, the script might get torn apart.
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The second act is the hardest to endure; your mindset really gets worn down.
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180,000? Dream on. First, see if you can stabilize at 100,000 before talking.
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This guy has written down his entire mental journey, basically teaching people how not to cut losses during a sharp decline.
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The key is who can truly stick to this pace until the fourth act. I bet most people will run away by the third act.
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Six months is a bit optimistic for this time window; if the macro trend changes, everything becomes pointless.
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CommunityWorker
· 01-07 04:28
The four-act play sounds quite reasonable, but I bet five dollars that in the second act, half the audience will be convinced to leave.
Will this bull market hit a straight top? I’m skeptical. Instead of saying Bitcoin will rocket straight up, it’s more like a four-act play will unfold.
**Act 1: Testing New Highs**
Starting around 92,000, first probing the 95,000 to 100,000 range. There will definitely be several 5%-10% pullbacks in between, as the market digests the new highs. This phase can be a bit annoying but is quite normal—it’s just gradually accepting the new price level of "100,000." This stage will take about 1-2 months.
**Act 2: Plateau Period (The Most Frustrating Part)**
Once BTC stabilizes at 100,000, it’s likely to fluctuate between 100,000 and 125,000, with wide swings. You’ll see scenes like rising to 115,000 then crashing back to 90,000—that’s routine. During this phase, the bulls and bears are exchanging power, and altcoins are undergoing brutal shakeouts. This will last about 2-4 months, and it’s the most testing for your patience.
**Act 3: Deep Pullback**
Before hitting the top, there will be a downward move that looks like the "end of the bull market." Imagine a sharp drop from 120,000 straight down to 90,000-100,000—that’s quite terrifying. But this is the final shakeout phase, clearing out the last weak hands. Expect this to last 1-2 months.
**Act 4: Vertical Surge**
After the shakeout, the main rally begins. The trend shifts from a gentle slope to a steep incline, even approaching vertical. BTC could rapidly jump from the 100,000 zone to 150,000-180,000, while Ethereum surges to 9,000-12,000. The entire market will be gripped by FOMO, rising rapidly with wild volatility. This process might only take 1-3 months.
**Overall Rhythm Estimate**
From now until the expected top of the bull market (BTC in the 150,000-180,000 range), the core timeframe is about 6-9 months, more likely around 6 months.
**Final Words**
This analysis is a "map," not a "schedule." The key is to observe BTC’s reactions at support levels like 100,000, 120,000, and 90,000, to determine which act the market is in. That way, you won’t be scared into buying or selling during sudden surges or crashes. The last part of a bull market is the most turbulent—knowing roughly how it will twist and turn helps you stay steady on the ride.