Recently, Goldman Sachs issued a warning: the US labor market is showing clear cracks. The unemployment rate has soared to 4.6%, and the broader U-6 unemployment rate has climbed to a high of 8.7%. Wage growth continues to slow, and resignation rates are declining—these signals all point to a rapid cooling of labor demand.

What does this mean? It suggests that the Federal Reserve may be forced to implement a much deeper rate cut than expected in 2026. Although only a 25 basis point cut was made in December, divisions within the Fed have already surfaced—some board members advocate for a 50 basis point cut directly, while two chairs oppose further easing. The dot plot hints that only one more move might occur in 2026. But what if the economy deteriorates beyond current forecasts? Then, the easing measures could only intensify.

Another uncertainty is that Powell’s successor has not yet been decided; Haskett and Waller are both on the shortlist. The market is beginning to worry about the potential impact on the Fed’s independence, and the direction of future policy remains uncertain.

From a trading perspective, current interest rates are approaching neutral levels, but economic pressures still exist. As hawkish voices weaken and dovish calls rise, can gold surge accordingly? How long can the US dollar’s safe-haven status last? For holders of BTC, ETH, XRP, these macro changes are crucial references. The market in 2026 may be more interesting than you think.