Vietnam delivered an impressive economic report card in 2025.

According to official data, Vietnam's GDP growth rate for the year reached 8.02%, surpassing the initial target of 8%. More notably, the total GDP exceeded $500 billion for the first time, reaching $514 billion (approximately 3.67 trillion RMB). This figure places Vietnam among the top countries worldwide in terms of growth rate; within ASEAN, it is even more far ahead.

Quarterly, Vietnam achieved continuous growth—Q1 at 7%, Q2 at 8.19%, Q3 jumped to 8.23%, and Q4 surged to 8.46%, showing an accelerating trend. In December alone, exports increased by 23.8% year-on-year, and this momentum continued to strengthen toward the end of the year.

Per capita GDP also broke through $5000 for the first time, marking Vietnam's official entry into the middle-high income country category. At this growth rate, Vietnam is expected to surpass Thailand in 2026 to become Southeast Asia's second-largest economy.

**Exports are the engine**

What is the core driving force behind this high growth? The answer points to a key word: exports.

In 2025, Vietnam's total foreign trade import and export value reached $930 billion, an 18% increase year-on-year. Exports totaled $475 billion (up 17%), imports $455 billion, with a trade surplus of $20 billion. This total trade volume is enough to rank Vietnam among the top 15 global trading nations.

However, there is an interesting phenomenon—Vietnam imports a large amount of industrial raw materials from China, assembles products domestically, and mainly exports to the US. In other words, Vietnam plays the role of an "assembly plant" in the global supply chain. When the US launched a tariff war in April last year, Vietnam responded quickly, pledging to fully open its market to the US and reducing export tariffs to 20%. This strategic move triggered a continuous export boom—from the second quarter onward, Vietnam maintained high growth of 8% for three consecutive quarters.

**Signals of industrial upgrading**

From January to August 2025, Vietnam's exports to the US reached $99 billion, a 26% increase year-on-year, accounting for one-third of Vietnam's total exports. The structure of exported goods shows signs of industrial upgrading.

Vietnam's main exports used to be labor-intensive products such as textiles, footwear, and toys. Now, this pattern is changing—exports of mobile phones, computers, and mechanical equipment are rapidly increasing. Data shows that from January to August 2025, Vietnam's exports of mobile phones and computers exceeded $100 billion. Among these, computer exports accounted for 26% of exports to the US, becoming the largest single product.

In the global mobile phone export market, Vietnam surpassed India in 2024 to become the second-largest exporter in the world (after China). Apple, Samsung, and other manufacturers are shifting parts of their supply chains to Vietnam. What drives this? Tariff differences, geopolitical advantages, policy preferences—these are all pieces of the puzzle.

**Growth ceiling**

However, behind the high growth, there are many concerns.

Vietnam's rapid GDP growth heavily depends on exports, which in turn depend on the continuous transfer of international industries. If this transfer slows down, growth will face pressure. A deeper issue is infrastructure—power, transportation, logistics, heavy industry—all are relatively underdeveloped, and these are the foundation for sustainable manufacturing and economic growth.

As for whether Vietnam can become a developed country, there is still a long way to go. Vietnam's per capita GDP just broke through $5000, while the threshold for developed countries is around $20,000—more than four times higher. Additionally, most of Vietnam's manufacturing remains at the OEM and assembly stage, and technological independence is just beginning. These gaps cannot be bridged in the short term.

In simple terms, Vietnam's current story is—by seizing the opportunity of industrial transfer, it has achieved rapid growth driven by exports. But to upgrade from a "assembly country" to an "innovation country," much larger investments are needed in infrastructure, industrial upgrading, and technological innovation.