After seven losses totaling 500,000, why does this whale still insist on shorting ZEC?

Here we go again. A whale that has already lost $508,000 on ZEC, closed its position yesterday, and re-entered today. This time, it shorted 3697.06 ZEC with 2x leverage (approximately $1.83 million), with an entry average price of $507.66. According to the latest information, this address has shorted ZEC seven times and has never gone long.

This is not simply greed or gambler’s psychology, but a market signal worth paying attention to.

The Cost Behind Persistent Shorting

This whale’s trading record can be described as “remarkably consistent”:

From the data, this whale’s performance on ZEC can be called “dismal.” But interestingly, it hasn’t changed direction—in fact, it continued to short after losses. This suggests two possible explanations:

First, the market direction judgment might be correct, but the timing is off.

ZEC has risen from $301 to over $500, an increase of more than 60%. During this upward movement, shorting was indeed a “contrarian” choice. However, according to related news, market opinions on ZEC are not unified—some see it as a “driving wave” trend, while others believe it’s just a “rebound replica.” The whale’s multiple short positions may be based on its judgment of the rebound’s height.

Second, this whale might possess some information or logic that other market participants do not.

Continuously shorting 7 times and incurring losses, yet persisting in shorting further, is itself intriguing. It doesn’t seem like blind gambling but rather waiting for a specific moment. It entered at $507.66, while the current ZEC price is $496.15, already with a floating profit of $41,000. This indicates that the whale’s entry timing is relatively precise.

Signals in Market Divergence

According to related news, there is a clear bullish-bearish split in the ZEC market:

• The bullish side believes ZEC is in a driving wave, targeting $550 or even $600
• The bearish side thinks it’s just a rebound, with real risk coming if key support levels are broken
• Technically, $512 was an important support, and its breakdown on January 3 triggered market concerns

This whale’s re-entry is essentially betting on the downside amid this divergence. Interestingly, it chose to re-enter after the price had already fallen from the high and broke below the $512 support, a timing choice that coincides with some analysts’ judgment that the “rebound has ended.”

Risks and Insights

Of course, this whale’s trading history also reminds us:

• Even large funds can make systematic errors in judgment
• Shorting assets during a rally involves time costs—each wrong timing results in real financial loss
• The market’s complexity often exceeds the predictions of any single participant

Summary

This whale’s “seven in, seven out” story reflects the current complex state of the ZEC market. Its persistent shorting may be a rational stance or a manifestation of “survivor bias.” But regardless, each of its actions sends signals to the market: the future direction of ZEC remains uncertain and widely debated.

For ordinary investors, the key is not to follow this whale blindly but to understand the logic behind its actions—why continue shorting despite losses, and what market judgments are behind it. That is the real question worth pondering.