#以太坊大户持仓变化 ADP data is coming, let's see if the US job market can turn the tide

This time, the ADP employment data will mostly fall in the range of 30,000 to 50,000 jobs. My intuition is that it will be close to the expected value of 47,000, which is a neutral and moderate result. The possibility of a significant bottoming out (below the previous value of -32,000) is actually quite low.

Why do I make this judgment? Here are three reasons:

**Trend is recovering** From June to November this year, US employment experienced continuous decline, which was quite tense during that period. However, the December forecast has been pulled back to around 50,000, indicating that the market actually believes there is hope for the employment sector. The -32,000 figure was just a flash in the pan; the employment fundamentals haven't collapsed, and there is a basis for a rebound.

**Expected values are not given for free** The 47,000 figure is calculated by institutions based on fundamentals like labor supply and demand, and corporate hiring willingness. Historically, when the employment market is stable, ADP reported figures and expectations usually don't differ much. It is highly likely that this data will align with expectations.

**There is a pattern in employment data this year** The overall rhythm for 2025 is "high start - downward exploration - stabilization," and November clearly hit the bottom. Plus, the US economy showed a mild recovery in Q4, and companies are unlikely to cut jobs significantly. Moderate growth and steady increase are the normal routines.

Here are some possible market impacts based on different outcomes:

If above 47,000 → The Federal Reserve will stick to high interest rates, gold will suffer, the dollar will be strong, and sensitive sectors in A-shares, both domestic and foreign, may be hit.

If between 30,000 and 47,000 → In line with expectations, assets will likely fluctuate, and we need non-farm payroll data to confirm the direction.

If below 30,000 or even turning negative → The market will start fearing a recession, calls for rate cuts will emerge, gold will benefit, the dollar will be suppressed, and growth-oriented A-shares may rebound.

$BTC $ETH The direction still depends on these macro signals.