The U.S. Supreme Court is set to make a critical ruling on January 9th (Friday) Eastern Time, directly impacting the legality of the Trump administration's "Global Tariff Parity" policy. This involves not only over $200 billion in real money but could also redefine the boundaries of presidential trade authority in the United States.

Reviewing the entire event timeline: In April of this year, the Trump administration invoked the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose tariffs ranging from 10% to 40% on certain goods, which has so far generated over $200 billion in federal revenue. However, lower courts have deemed this action overstepped boundaries, with the case ascending through appeals all the way to the Supreme Court.

The market is currently mainly focused on three possible rulings. The first is a compromise— the court rules that tariffs based on trade deficits exceed authority but retains tariffs on a few goods related to national security; the second is full support— the policy is entirely legal, significantly strengthening the White House's trade legislative power; the third is a complete government defeat, with the tariffs policy being directly overturned.

According to data from the prediction market Polymarket, investor sentiment is quite clear— currently, the market is betting that the Supreme Court will rule against the Trump administration with a probability exceeding 75%. Interestingly, even if found illegal, the White House is not willing to take a risk without certainty. Economic Advisor Hasset has already indicated that alternative measures such as the "Section 301" tariffs can continue to exert pressure. Even if tariffs are ultimately repealed, complex administrative procedures could delay the process. The outcome of this "ultimate judgment" may just be the beginning; the real game has only just started.