#比特币价格走势 Seeing this set of Q4 data, my first reaction was to dig out old notes from 2018. I experienced that year's bear market, and the panic at the bottom has a strange similarity to the current "rebound weakness."

A 22% quarterly decline is indeed rare in recent years. But interestingly, the market is creating a hypnotic illusion of a reversal—Bitcoin rebounding to around $90,000, with total market cap returning to $3 trillion. On the surface, it looks like a "sign of recovery," but Santiment's analysis has pierced through this illusion: social media panic sentiment is simply not deep enough. What does this indicate? It suggests that the true bottom has not yet arrived.

Those voices still optimistic about a short-term reversal often appear when the market is furthest from the actual bottom. I have seen too many such cycles—the last few "false rebounds" are always the most confusing. The $75,000 prediction mentioned by Santiment and Fidelity's $65,000 forecast sound very pessimistic, but from a historical cycle perspective, this might actually be a necessary shakeout process.

Forced liquidations, legislative obstacles, policy uncertainties—these are pressures beyond technical analysis, and they are the "killing moves" I have repeatedly witnessed in 2018 and 2020. The weakening of corporate buy-in effects is especially worth noting—weak prices of "lighthouse" stocks like MicroStrategy essentially reflect a shift in market attitude towards the entire cycle.

Currently, I tend to interpret the trend as a "technical correction" rather than a trend reversal. The weaker the rebound, the more genuine the bottom. Patience at this point is more important than predictions.