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This time is truly different. The figure of $36 trillion in U.S. debt is right there, increasing by $1 trillion every three months, with annual interest reaching $882 billion—more than the combined military, education, and energy expenditures. AI layoffs of 55,000 people are underway, and an unemployment wave is brewing. Against this backdrop, Trump issued a final ultimatum to Powell—cut interest rates by 1%.

Powell now faces a dilemma. Cutting rates could reignite inflation and undermine the dollar’s credit foundation; not cutting means facing political pressure and exploding U.S. debt risks. The market has already smelled blood.

Look at these numbers: the probability of a rate cut in March surged to 89%, gold ETFs saw $3.4 billion in weekly inflows, Bitcoin broke through $93,000, and the Nasdaq continued to rise. Behind every data point, the market is betting on a policy shift. But hidden within are deadly risks—by 2024, the Fed has already cut rates 5 times, and in 2025, there may be only 1-2 opportunities left. U.S. Treasury yields are highly volatile, overseas central banks are疯狂抛售, and a single policy swing can cause a $920 million liquidation in a single day.

So what should we do now? Four bottom lines are most critical: First, never try to guess the bottom or top; every Fed statement must be carefully analyzed. Second, hedging strategies must be comprehensive—Bitcoin, gold, and cash—missing one could be fatal. Third, leverage is off-limits now; even 5x leverage could wipe you out tomorrow. Fourth, keep enough bullets—when the crash truly happens, you’ll be the one to buy the dip.

Is this wave of market movement a real breakout or a "rate cut expectation trap"? Historically, the biggest volatility often erupts when consensus is at its strongest. What’s your position size? How will you respond to the liquidity tsunami?