The US financial market in 2025 is caught in a triangular dilemma. The Trump administration is pressuring the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, while Powell claims policy independence, and both sides are secretly competing. But what is the real pressure behind the scenes? The $36 trillion US debt has become an unbearable burden—adding $1 trillion in just three months, with annual interest payments reaching $882 billion, surpassing the defense budget.

Imagine this scenario: the US is torn between printing money wildly and insisting on policy independence. Cutting rates? Inflation might rebound. Not cutting? Debt crisis could explode at any moment. Even more painful, the AI industry is undergoing frantic layoffs (recently cutting 55,000 jobs), and traditional economic stimulus measures have become ineffective. It seems there’s no other way but to keep printing money.

Market signals suggest that the futures market has already started celebrating—probability of rate cuts in March soared to 89%, gold ETFs bought $3.4 billion in a month, and Bitcoin has broken through the $93,000 mark. The drums of a liquidity feast are already sounding; capital has sniffed out the taste of money printing.

But the other side of this story is even more exciting. In 2024, the Fed has already cut rates five times, and market expectations for 2025 suggest only two more opportunities. US Treasury yields are fluctuating, overseas investors are starting to watch cautiously, and the debt spiral risk continues to escalate. Remember the tragedies caused by policy swings in history—270,000 traders wiped out, $920 million evaporated in an instant. Traders with high leverage need to be especially cautious.

For ordinary investors, the core logic is actually quite clear:

First, keep a close eye on every speech from the Federal Reserve. Once the policy tone shifts, adjust your positions immediately. This is not caution; it’s survival.

Second, inflation-hedging assets are definitely worth paying attention to. Bitcoin has broken through $90,000, and gold is hitting new highs. The simultaneous rise of these two assets reflects the market’s consensus on money printing expectations.

Finally, don’t be tempted by high leverage. When the market goes crazy, even professional institutions are cutting each other’s positions. Retail investors using leverage are just asking for trouble.

The question boils down to one point: will the Federal Reserve ultimately back down? Will Trump’s pressure break the policy independence? Or will Powell continue to resist, letting the debt crisis explode on its own? The outcome of this game will directly determine how high Bitcoin can fly in 2025 and how much gold can rise. Whether the crypto circle can fully capitalize on this liquidity release or get caught in a final harvest depends on how deeply you understand this financial drama.