Japan's Lost Thirty Years has always been a mystery. Looking back over 30 years, Japan's economy was brilliant like the sun, but at a certain turning point, it suddenly turned downward. Economist Gu Zhaoming explained this phenomenon as "balance sheet recession," but recently I thought of a more fundamental perspective—it's really a human problem.

**The Illusion of Debt-Driven Prosperity**

What is the core logic of economic prosperity? Ultimately, it is debt-driven. Borrowing money while building and developing, GDP figures look impressive, but behind this beauty lies a complex entanglement of creditor and debtor relationships. Deposits are the most fundamental bonds, with natural persons as creditors and financial institutions as debtors; financial institutions then lend money to enterprises and individuals, forming layered debt chains. Bonds, wealth management products, various bills, derivatives—these seemingly prosperous financial innovations all fundamentally stem from this core deposit-credit relationship. Therefore, the essence of GDP is actually the numbers generated by the entanglement and expansion of creditor-debtor relationships.

**Population Decline Is the True Disappearance of Creditor-Debtor Relationships**

During Japan's most prosperous years, the 40-50 age group was at their most capable. They indeed earned money—whether through mechanisms driven by debt or genuine labor—this group accumulated large amounts of savings, government bonds, investment assets, and real estate. They became vested interests and also drivers of social progress. How wealthy were they? Wealthy enough that, during the subsequent 30-year downward cycle, they could live comfortably solely on pensions, savings, and bond yields, even supporting their descendants as "homebodies," wasting their entire lives with surplus.

What does this indicate? It shows that their holdings of creditor assets were extremely substantial.

Now, 30 years have passed. The people who were 40-50 years old then are now 70-80 and gradually approaching the end of their lives. This is crucial—**human death is the true disappearance of creditor-debtor relationships**. According to reports, Japan has indeed begun to see a large number of deaths in recent years, with assets left behind unclaimed, and the government gradually taking over these assets. This is a natural process of debt resolution.

**From Japan to the Domestic 30-Year Cycle**

Applying this logic domestically, the key figures are those born around the beginning of the Reform and Opening-up period—specifically, those born between 1965 and 1979. They are widely recognized as the most hard-working generation, but also the biggest vested interests. They also need to wait about 30 years for the tangled creditor-debtor relationships to naturally resolve over time and population decline. In other words, when this group reaches 85-90 years old and gradually passes away, the enormous creditor assets they hold will be truly released.

When will that be? Around the year 2050.

By that time, among the current post-90s and post-00s, those aged approximately 35-50 will usher in the true era of dividends. They will compete and strive to distribute these released enormous benefits, forming a new generation of vested interests. This cycle coincides precisely with the famous Kondratiev wave—about 60 years.

**The Harsh Truth of Fate and the Times**

In this way, a person's destiny is, to some extent, determined by their birth year. If unlucky enough to be born in a declining year, it can only be said that luck was not on their side. The most typical are the post-85s to post-00s—they missed the era dividends of the previous generation's "everything goes well" period. The unluckiest might be the post-90s—they neither enjoyed the benefits of the early reform and opening-up nor will they see their turn until around 2050.

But this also means that every cycle will pass. Waiting is not meaningless; it is the operation of historical laws.