Retail Giants Set to Ride Holiday Wave: Can Amazon Stock Outpace the Market?

The 2025 holiday shopping season is shaping up to be a pivotal moment for retail stocks, with Black Friday and Cyber Monday marking the most critical performance window. As the National Retail Federation forecasts holiday season sales to exceed $1 trillion for the first time in history—representing 3.7% to 4.2% year-over-year growth—investors are reassessing exposure to major retail players and their long-term growth trajectories.

The Retail Sector’s Historic Advantage

Historically, retailers have demonstrated notable outperformance relative to the broader S&P 500 during the pre- and post-Black Friday trading window. This pattern reflects genuine consumer spending momentum rather than speculative trading, making seasonal retail exposure a legitimate portfolio consideration for those thinking about amazon stock prediction in 10 years and similar long-term retail trends.

Walmart’s Momentum and Near-Term Strength

Walmart (WMT) has already captured significant investor attention, with stock performance reaching 13% year-to-date in 2025. The company’s extended Black Friday campaign (November 14 through December 1) spans three distinct promotional phases, leveraging its renowned omnichannel infrastructure and competitive pricing architecture. Current Wall Street consensus pegs Walmart’s price target at $116, suggesting approximately 15% additional upside. For long-term investors, Walmart’s proven ability to capture holiday demand positions it as a stable foundation for retail exposure.

Shopify’s Growth Trajectory

Shopify (SHOP), controlling the second-largest e-commerce ecosystem in North America behind only Amazon, has demonstrated exceptional momentum with 36% gains year-to-date. The platform’s merchant network generated $11.5 billion in sales during last year’s Black Friday and Cyber Monday events—a 24% surge year-over-year. Institutional analysts project gross merchandise volume will establish fresh records this cycle, with consensus price targets around $179 indicating 22% upside potential. This growth pattern offers insights into future e-commerce scaling when considering amazon stock prediction in 10 years scenarios.

Amazon’s Underperformance and Recovery Potential

Interestingly, Amazon (AMZN) presents a contrarian opportunity. Despite its dominance across multiple verticals—cloud infrastructure, advertising networks, and core e-commerce—the stock has appreciated merely 1% through 2025, substantially lagging both the S&P 500 and fellow Magnificent Seven constituents. Amazon’s Black Friday promotional window (November 20 through December 1) spans nearly two weeks with emphasis on electronics, toys, and beauty segments.

The discrepancy between Amazon’s operational strength and stock valuation becomes apparent when examining guidance: fourth-quarter revenue is projected between $206 billion and $213 billion, representing 10%–13% year-over-year expansion. This disconnect suggests meaningful valuation recovery potential, particularly relevant for anyone analyzing amazon stock prediction in 10 years from a value accumulation perspective.

Strategic Implications for Long-Term Investors

The 2025 holiday season will test whether traditional retail seasonality still drives meaningful stock movements in an era of algorithmic trading and fragmented consumer behavior. For investors with extended time horizons, the current positioning of these three retailers—from Walmart’s stability to Shopify’s growth acceleration to Amazon’s undervaluation—creates a compelling case study in sector rotation and capital allocation. The next two months will provide crucial data points for forecasting which narrative will dominate retail stock performance through the decade ahead.