Over the past two weeks, we've seen BTC surge from 92,000 all the way up to a new high of 93,000, with many people murmuring "Why is it still rising? What about the geopolitical risks?" Frankly, if you're still waiting for risk premiums to come from geopolitical tensions, you might have misunderstood the situation.

Let's first review the rhythm of this market movement. When the Venezuela risk first emerged, BTC was actually dropping—that's a typical retail investor reaction to negative news. But an interesting turn happened: the market gradually realized that the core issue wasn't "escalating conflict," but the US vying for energy control. Once oil resources come under US influence, a downward pressure on global oil prices becomes highly likely.

This is where smart money gets excited. Falling oil prices naturally ease US inflation pressures. Once there are signs of inflation easing, the Federal Reserve's pace of rate cuts will definitely accelerate—that's an unmistakable policy expectation. And what does a rate cut cycle mean? The real purchasing power of the dollar will be diluted.

So you see, BTC's current rally isn't driven by speculative enthusiasm. To institutions and large funds, it has long evolved into a hedge against US dollar depreciation. This isn't the traditional definition of a "safe-haven asset," but a redefinition of its monetary attribute—a hard currency under easing expectations.

The core secret of this market movement lies here: it's not the geopolitical situation itself that pushes BTC higher, but the chain of logic—geopolitical changes → energy landscape → inflation expectations → monetary policy → long-term pressure on the dollar. Once this chain is understood, BTC's appeal as a non-sovereign asset truly stands out. Moving forward, we still need to watch the Federal Reserve's actual actions and the real trend of oil prices, as these are the key variables that will determine the next phase of the market.