Recently, a fascinating viewpoint has been circulating in the crypto circle: that the appreciation of the US dollar could actually drive up Bitcoin prices. This idea sounds counterintuitive, but it’s not entirely unfounded.

The core logic behind this is that when the dollar appreciates and global liquidity tightens, people in emerging markets become more concerned about their own currencies depreciating and thus seek safe-haven assets. In this context, Bitcoin’s attribute as a supra-sovereign currency becomes prominent. Venezuela is a vivid example—when the local currency continues to devalue, residents are indeed using Bitcoin extensively to protect their assets.

However, there is a question worth pondering: historically, during periods of dollar strength, Bitcoin has often underperformed. Why? Because in a strong dollar environment, investors tend to prefer holding dollar assets rather than risk assets. Data from 2014-2015 and 2018-2019 support this. Whether this time will be different is really hard to say.

So, the key is to keep an eye on the Federal Reserve’s policy moves. As long as the rate hike pace continues, inflation expectations remain in a betting phase. At this point, the relationship between the dollar and Bitcoin is far from certain—don’t rush to draw conclusions. The real opportunities often lie in these contradictions and uncertainties.