Recently, Ethereum's performance has indeed been interesting. Let's review the rhythm: on November 21st, a bottom signal was given at 2624; on December 11th, a precise top was reached at 3447. Those who followed the rhythm and bought in on December 19th now have account gains exceeding 16%, even those who entered during the late-stage volatility at the end of the month are generally in profits of over 10%.

In last week's analysis, it was mentioned that ETH faces significant resistance in the 3240 to 3250 range. Today's movement fully confirms this judgment — it started to pull back after reaching around 3220.

What’s next? Two key scenarios:

**First possibility: Strong Breakout Scenario**

If in the next two days, a large bullish candle directly and forcefully breaks through 3240 and 3250, then there’s basically no suspense. This indicates a stronger upward trend. According to this logic, the target levels of 3800 or even 3900 are quite probable.

**Second possibility: Consolidation and Adjustment Scenario**

If in the next two days, ETH tests the 3240-3250 range again but fails to break through effectively, ETH may experience a short-term pullback. After the adjustment, it could continue upward, but there are two paths: the blue line scenario involves sideways consolidation, completing the correction quickly and then pushing higher, breaking and stabilizing above 3240-3250, with the final target still around 3700 to 3800. The red line scenario involves a larger retracement and a longer duration of movement, which would require adjusting the overall rebound expectations since the previous rally since 2623 would be viewed more cautiously, with risks of a clear top near the previous high or after breaking through.

**Position Management Advice:**

For those with higher costs, risk control should consider the possibility of the red line scenario. Those with decent costs but larger positions can consider reducing some holdings when facing resistance or encountering obstacles near previous highs.

Honestly, no matter how clear the data and logic are in trading, ultimately it depends on your execution and mindset. The attractive returns in the crypto market are often accompanied by equal risks. Ultimately, you are the captain of your ship. Wishing everyone to seize this wave of opportunity.