January 05 | ETH Trend Analysis

Key Insights

Current Price: $3,139 USD (as of 08:00 January 5)

Short-term Outlook: Bullish bias. Daily MACD remains in a bullish alignment, price holds above key moving averages, and 4-hour chart shows strong upward momentum (ADX 43). Derivatives market shows 71% of 24-hour liquidations are shorts ($15.2M), indicating dominance by bulls. Expected trading range is 3,120-3,200 USD, with a 60% probability of upward movement, targeting the 3,170-3,200 zone.

Key Support Levels:

• $3,126 – 1-hour Bollinger Band lower band, recent liquidation cluster
• $3,100 – Max pain point for options, with cumulative long liquidation pressure exceeding $950M+

Key Resistance Levels:

• $3,160 – Short liquidation start point ($12.7M)
• $3,192 – 4-hour Bollinger Band upper band
• $3,200 – Dense short liquidation zone (over $66M cumulative)

Technical Analysis

Multi-timeframe Price Structure

Price on the 1-hour chart touches the upper Bollinger Band ($3,150), while the 4-hour remains above EMA20 ($3,102) / EMA50 ($3,047), indicating a bullish structure. However, caution is warranted as the 4-hour RSI is overbought and MACD histogram narrows, which could trigger a short-term correction.

Derivatives Market Dynamics

Open Interest: Total $41.7B (+0.34% in 24h), Binance accounts for the largest share at $9.2B.

Funding Rates: Binance +0.008% (longs pay), Bybit +0.0014%, indicating slight over-leverage but not extreme.

Options Market: Total open interest $7.1B (+2.4%), with max pain at $3,100 aligning with key support levels. Approaching expiry may induce magnetic effects.

Liquidation Risk Map: Shorts above $3,166 face over $98M in liquidation pressure; longs below $3,007 face over $950M. Asymmetrical downside risk exists. Breaking above $3,160 could trigger a short squeeze cascade.

Exchange Capital Flows

24-hour net outflow of -129K ETH, continuing recent trend (Jan 2: -48K, Jan 1: -66K). Exchange reserves drop to 16.49M ETH ($51.6B), reflecting reduced selling pressure and increased long-term holding sentiment.

Market Sentiment

Social media shows an optimistic tone:

• Technical Breakthrough Narrative: KOL @cyrilXBT notes ETH recapturing major zones, approaching 2021 highs, with no clear rejection signals
• Support Confirmation: @TedPillows emphasizes ETH holding key levels, with potential for gentle rally upon reclaiming higher resistance
• Momentum Accumulation: @Sykodelic_ mentions ETH consolidating and breaking moving averages, with momentum building
• Institutional Adoption: JPMorgan launching tokenized money market funds on Ethereum, reinforcing on-chain finance adoption narrative

Community expects that if ETH maintains above $3,000 and reclaims $3,200, it could test $4,000 soon. No significant bearish voices observed; focus remains on support holding and breakout confirmation.

Trading Strategy Reference

Long Setup (70% Win Rate):

• Entry: $3,140-3,150 (current zone, above 1H EMA20)
• Target: $3,190 (4H Bollinger upper band)
• Stop Loss: $3,120 (1H Bollinger lower band)
• Risk-Reward Ratio: 1.8 (Good)

Invalidation: Break below $3,100 max pain point for options and a trend reversal in exchange reserves.

Risk Warnings

1. 4H Overbought: RSI at 72, histogram narrows, short-term correction possible to $3,126-3,100 zone
2. Daily Resistance: EMA200 at $3,302, medium-term upward move needs to overcome this resistance
3. Asymmetric Liquidation: Downside liquidation of longs far exceeds upside shorts, rapid declines could accelerate
4. Funding Rates: Slightly overheated longs, monitor rising rates and position changes