January 05 | BTC Trend Analysis

Core Viewpoints

Current Price: $93,028 (as of 01/05 11:23)

Short-term Outlook: Multi-timeframe technical indicators show a bullish trend, with 1-hour, 4-hour, and daily levels all above key moving averages, and MACD displaying positive histogram bars. There is upward breakout momentum in the short term, with a 24-48 hour target of $94,000-$95,000, but caution is warranted as 1-hour and 4-hour RSI are overbought (80.37 and 77.36), which could trigger a short-term pullback.

Key Support Levels:

• Strong Support: $92,900 (1-hour Bollinger Band upper band)
• Secondary Support: $92,656-$91,186 (longs liquidation zone, totaling $4.98B-$12.6B)
• Psychological Support: $90,000 (max pain point for options)

Key Resistance Levels:

• Near-term Resistance: $93,500-$94,000 (shorts liquidation zone)
• Mid-term Resistance: $95,000 (weekly EMA12)
• Long-term Resistance: $101,467 (weekly SMA50)

Market Dynamics

Price and Volume

Bitcoin has performed strongly over the past 24 hours, rising 1.89% from $92,947 to $93,028, with market cap stable at $1.859 trillion. Daily trading volume reached $37.48 billion, indicating healthy market activity. Prices across major exchanges are consistent: Binance spot $92,804, futures $91,337; Bybit spot $93,030, futures $92,762.

Derivatives Market Performance

Total futures open interest is $60.1 billion, up 3.65% in 24 hours, reflecting increased market participation. Funding rates remain positive (Binance 0.0066%, Bybit 0.0070%, OKX 0.0088%), indicating longs are paying, with bullish sentiment dominating.

24-hour liquidation data shows significant asymmetry: out of $91.6 million total liquidations, shorts account for $86.3 million (94%), longs only $5.3 million (6%), confirming strong short-term upward momentum. The liquidation risk map shows a long liquidation cluster below $92,656 (totaling $1.26 billion), and a short liquidation cluster above $93,500 (totaling $685 million).

Options market open interest is $30.2 billion, with maximum pain points concentrated in the $90,000-$95,000 range, with the largest expiry in January at $90,000.

Exchange Liquidity

Net outflows from exchanges have persisted over the past 7 days, with 157 BTC outflow on Jan 4, 336 BTC on Jan 3, and a peak outflow of 5,474 BTC on Dec 30. 30-day reserves decreased from 2.763 million BTC on Dec 29 to 2.751 million BTC on Jan 4 (equivalent to $251 billion), indicating investors are moving Bitcoin from exchanges to cold wallets, often a sign of long-term holding.

Technical Analysis

Multi-timeframe Trends

1-hour level: Price is above EMA12 ($92,077), EMA26 ($91,586), and SMA50 ($90,904), testing the upper Bollinger Band at $92,899. RSI hits 80.37, entering overbought territory, MACD histogram +161 indicates strong bullish momentum.

4-hour level: Price has broken above EMA12 ($91,103), EMA26 ($90,193), and SMA50 ($88,974), approaching the upper Bollinger Band at $92,484. RSI at 77.36 also overbought, MACD histogram +185 maintains positive expansion.

Daily level: Price has broken above EMA12 ($89,731), EMA26 ($89,498), and SMA50 ($89,219), but remains below SMA200 ($106,629). RSI at 63.39 indicates healthy bullishness, MACD histogram +747 shows a golden cross.

Weekly level: Price remains below EMA12 ($95,099), EMA26 ($99,689), and SMA50 ($101,467), indicating the long-term trend needs further confirmation. RSI at 43.23 is neutral, MACD histogram -1,888 remains negative.

Key Technical Indicators

On-balance volume (OBV) is positive on 1-hour (+5,146), but turned negative on 4-hour and daily (-19,330 / -63,168), while weekly remains strong positive (10.7 million), indicating short-term buying pressure but medium-term correction pressure coexist.

Market Sentiment

Social Media Sentiment

Early 2026 social media sentiment is cautiously optimistic. Institutional narratives remain positive, with discussions on Bitcoin mining collaborations with tech giants like Google, US proposals to allow Bitcoin for tax payments, and regulatory updates such as CFTC statements on crypto collateral. Analysts like PlanB emphasize Bitcoin’s scarcity as a fundamental value driver, predicting market cap surpassing gold. Tom Lee forecasts significant short-term gains, while Jack Mallers criticizes bearish views amid fiat devaluation and stimulus measures.

Market Sentiment Divergence

Despite institutional optimism, some retail forums show fatigue, with users shifting to gold and silver. Technical analysts point to bearish signals from overtrend indicators and rate hike pressures, but Jim Cramer’s switch to a bearish stance is seen as a contrarian bottom signal. Weakness in altcoins and DeFi governance disputes are viewed as potential spillover risks, leading funds to selectively flow into Bitcoin.

Overall, community discussions focus on Bitcoin’s role in tokenized physical assets and perpetual financial products, seeing 2026 as a fundamental-driven year rather than broad speculation. Historical narratives, such as early Bitcoin vending machines’ rising value, reinforce the long-term appreciation logic.

Major Event Impact

On Jan 3-4, US military operations led to the arrest of Venezuelan President Maduro, with Trump announcing US control over the country’s oil reserves. Rumors suggest Venezuela may hold 600,000-660,000 BTC in shadow reserves (worth $56-67 billion), linked to gold/oil swaps. After the event, Bitcoin remained resilient, staying in the $90,000-$91,000 range, then rose 1% over the weekend in low liquidity conditions to a two-week high.

Tether bought $78.9 million worth of BTC on Dec 31, 2025, holding over 96,000 BTC entering 2026. The US government held over $30 billion in crypto assets as of Jan 4, with 97% in Bitcoin. BlackRock transferred $123 million worth of BTC/ETH into Coinbase Prime during the Jan 3 ETF fund outflow.

Overall Assessment

Bullish Factors:

• Strong short- and medium-term technical setups, with prices above key moving averages
• Multi-cycle golden crosses on MACD, with daily momentum expanding positively
• Shorts liquidation accounts for 94%, indicating short-term short squeeze potential
• Continuous net outflows from exchanges tighten supply
• Rising futures open interest and funding rates suggest strong bullish sentiment
• Institutional activity (Tether accumulation, regulatory positive news)

Risk Factors:

• Deep overbought RSI on 1-hour and 4-hour charts, increasing short-term correction risk
• Weekly remains below major moving averages, long-term trend needs confirmation
• Overheated RSI may lead to profit-taking if momentum wanes
• Geopolitical uncertainties (Venezuela) pose potential risks

Trading Strategy: Currently, the bullish vs. bearish forces favor bulls, with a higher probability of breaking $94,000-$95,000 in the short term. Focus on support levels at $92,900 and $92,656. If 1-hour RSI drops below 60, it could present a more stable entry point. Aggressive traders may consider adding longs around $92,500-$93,000 with stops at $91,500; conservative traders should wait for short-term overbought conditions to ease. Target $94,000-$95,000, with potential to test weekly EMA12 and higher resistance zones after breakout.