2026-01-05 03:01:00

#数字资产动态追踪 The unemployment rate has risen from 4% to 4.6%, and the wave of layoffs continues to ferment. Tariff impacts have already cut over 70,000 factory jobs, and bankruptcy risks are gradually increasing. This is not just a change in numbers—it reflects a quiet shift in the employment market.

Economic analyst Rosenberg's recent views have sparked attention: the labor market is shrinking, which could be a more dangerous signal than inflation. If U.S. employment growth approaches zero by 2026, the economy's fragility will be fully exposed.

GDP growth is barely supported by imports, but the average person's wallet has long been emptied. Savings rates are collapsing, income stagnates, and retail consumption growth is only 0.2%—non-essential consumption is retreating across the board, and the K-shaped economic pattern is becoming increasingly apparent.

Regarding the rate cut trajectory, the market is now divided into two camps. The mainstream expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 50 basis points, but Rosenberg insists that more aggressive action is needed—a violent rate cut of 125 basis points, directly lowering the interest rate to 2.25%. While some worry about inflation rebounding, others are eager to rescue the market. The outcome of the hawk-dove game will determine the next asset trends.

This week's data release window is crucial: from Monday to Wednesday, China-US PMI comparisons, and on Friday, the US non-farm payrolls report. Whether these economic indicators can confirm market expectations of rate cuts will directly influence global capital flows and risk asset pricing.

If Rosenberg's prophecy comes true, what awaits us in 2026 may not be a soft landing but rather global financial volatility triggered by soaring unemployment and central banks being forced to cut rates sharply. For those paying attention to market rhythm, every piece of data during this window is worth close monitoring.

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

17 Likes

Reward
17
4
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

TokenomicsTrapper

· 01-05 17:41

nah this is textbook greater fool theory tbh... rosenberg calling for 125bp cuts is peak capitulation energy, like watching liquidations on netflix fr. 0.2% retail growth = market's already priced in the pain, just nobody wants to admit it yet.

Reply0

GasGuzzler

· 01-05 03:28

Here we go again, how many people will have to eat dirt if unemployment keeps going like this Rosenberg is right, if the labor market really collapses, it’s more terrifying than anything else Cut interest rates by 125 basis points? That’s a joke, the money will be even less valuable then We’ll see what the Federal Reserve really plans to do once the data comes out this week Ordinary people's wallets are really running out, I just want to ask who else has no savings like me A 125 basis point cut directly to 2.25? Dare to imagine that, if it happens, us crypto players might be going to the moon Once the non-farm payroll data is released on Friday, there will probably be another rollercoaster ride The K-shaped divide is spot on, it’s true that the rich are getting richer The 70,000 jobs cut from tariffs is a huge number, but it feels like it could be even more

View OriginalReply0

SleepTrader

· 01-05 03:13

The wave of layoffs is coming, and with wallets shrinking, consumption will come to a halt. Rosenberg really dares to say that a 125 basis point cut will directly rescue the market? Wake up. Friday's non-farm payroll data is the real watershed. The savings rate has collapsed, and consumption growth is only 0.2%... Living is really not easy. Whether it's a 50 or 125 basis point rate cut, my coins will decide. The K-shaped split is becoming more and more obvious; if the wealth gap continues like this, it's not good. When non-farm data comes out, we'll see the true test—waiting for the storm. The Federal Reserve is caught in a dilemma—rescue the market or fight inflation. Their hand is a bit weak. Ordinary people are really being drained; no wonder more and more are hoarding coins. Rosenberg is right—shrinking the labor market is much scarier than inflation. In these days of data windows, we must keep a close eye. The tariff cuts cost 70,000 factory jobs, and the consequences are starting to become unsustainable. A soft landing in 2026? I think it's doubtful; the prelude to financial volatility has already begun.

View OriginalReply0

LiquidatedThrice

· 01-05 03:01

Rosengberg really dares to say this time, cutting 125 basis points to rescue the market, probably hoping to see a global flood of liquidity. --- Unemployment rate is still climbing, retail consumption growth is only 0.2%... Ordinary people's wallets are really about to hit bottom. --- I'm tired of hearing the term 'K-shaped split'; it should be the lower class dropping out directly. --- If the non-farm payroll data on Friday shows zero growth... well, that would be interesting. --- 70,000 factory jobs lost, and we're still discussing whether to cut 125 basis points? Wake up. --- As long as inflation doesn't rebound, that's fine. If it rebounds once, we're truly doomed. --- It feels like rate cuts are a done deal; better to exit positions early. --- The collapse of the savings rate—what does that mean? Everyone's broke. --- Financial volatility in 2026? Bro, I'm already being hit hard by volatility now. --- Hawk-dove game... honestly, isn't it just the central bank gambling? Win the gamble, everyone’s happy; lose, and we pay the price.

View OriginalReply0