2026-01-05 02:50:15

On-chain data from #2026年比特币行情展望 recently sent an interesting signal. According to Glassnode's Long-Term Holder Net Position Change indicator, in the past 30 days, long-term holders have increased their BTC holdings by approximately 10,700 coins — the first time this indicator has turned positive since July 2025.

What was the situation a few months ago? Long-term holders were continuously selling off, and the amount of Bitcoin in their possession was steadily decreasing, constantly distributing chips. Now, a sudden reversal—what does it mean?

Looking at exchange activity, Bitcoin has been continuously flowing out of exchanges, indicating that in the short term, there are fewer people actively dumping, and more funds are choosing to store in cold wallets, emphasizing long-term holding rather than quick in-and-out trading.

The combination of these two signals makes it less surprising that $BTC has formed a phased bottom around 80,000. Major holders who sold Bitcoin from July to November are now buying back some at this price level, which is a typical defensive strategy—rather than letting the price continue to fall, they prefer to add positions at key levels to avoid missing out. Such operations are common in the market, and judging by their buying scale, they are far from aggressive accumulation.

The reality is straightforward: big players have shifted from abandoning positions to cautious deployment. After establishing a bottom around 80,000, it’s not unrealistic for $BTC to rebound to ranges like 98,000 or 106,000. In the short term, an upward move is indeed possible.

But if we look at the longer cycle, we still have to admit that the overall environment remains weak. Unless we see substantial positive catalysts like large-scale quantitative easing, the medium-term trend will still be under pressure. At this stage, the focus should be on capturing rebound opportunities at the bottom rather than blindly chasing highs.

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DogeBachelor

· 01-07 22:28

Whales' recent actions are basically a combination of stop-loss and bottom-fishing, nothing special. To put it nicely, it's a defensive strategy; to be blunt, they're just chicken. However, the 80,000 level is indeed interesting. With so much outflow from exchanges, some people are quietly accumulating. Wait, can it really reach 106,000? That depends on whether the folks at the Federal Reserve have had enough to eat. Without policy stimulation... uh, don't look at me, I don't know either. Don't get too excited about the bottom rebound; this kind of signal has appeared several times in history, and it just ended up falling again. It's really smart to move funds into cold wallets early; exchanges are not run by the big shots.

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WealthCoffee

· 01-06 14:04

The big players are starting to scoop up positions. This wave is indeed quite interesting. It seems that the bottom signals are still quite clear. Long-term holders are shifting from selling off to buying back. Outflows from exchanges are accelerating. This combination of signals really feels like building a bottom. The 80,000 level might truly rebound to around 100,000. But to be fair, before quantitative easing is implemented, I still don't dare to be too aggressive. Short-term rebounds are okay to take profits, but greed should be kept in check. After such a long period of continuous selling, the bleeding has finally stopped. It seems that the market sentiment is really turning around. I believe in the signals of cold wallets accumulating. The overall environment is still relatively weak. Unless policies really come down hard, there will still be medium-term pressure. At this stage, it's about looking for bottom rebounds. Don't chase high recklessly.

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Deconstructionist

· 01-05 03:12

Long-term holders' net positions have turned positive, and exchange outflows are accelerating. This combination punch is indeed quite interesting. The bottom signals are gradually becoming clearer. The big players' defensive strategy is very obvious, not aggressive but cautious replenishment. The short-term rebound potential is there, but don't be blinded by the 80,000 to 100,000 rally. The overall environment is still weak, with no substantial positive news to support it. A bottom rebound is just a meal; chasing highs is a golden rule. Chasing highs easily leads to missing out; now is the stage to wait for confirmation signals. Suddenly, it seems that the big players' operational logic is very straightforward: rather than continue to fall, it's better to proactively hold key positions. We've seen similar situations more than once. The shift to 10,700 coins is quite meaningful—moving from distribution to accumulation, the market sentiment is indeed reversing. Is waiting for quantitative easing a pipe dream or a real expectation? This determines where the mid-term ceiling might be. For now, it still looks like heavy pressure.

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ConfusedWhale

· 01-05 03:09

The big players are starting to buy quietly again. This is the real signal, unlike us shouting buy and sell every day. Long-term holders are starting to add positions, indicating that no one wants to really miss out. The 80,000 level must be held. An increase in cold wallet inflows shows that people's minds are settling. No one wants to rush in and out quickly. That’s more proper. Is it really possible for the price to rebound to over 100,000? I just want to see if I can reach that level before deciding what to do. However, before quantitative easing arrives, it's better not to get too excited. There will still be medium-term pressure.

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CommunityJanitor

· 01-05 03:07

Long-term holders are starting to buy back? It feels like they're paving the way for a rebound.

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AirdropDreamBreaker

· 01-05 02:59

The big players are finally shifting from dumping to replenishing their positions, which is indeed a good sign. However, I still think we need to wait for quantitative easing to truly take off. Right now, a rebound of a few tens of thousands makes me want to go all-in uncontrollably. --- Long-term holders turning to buy indicates they are not so bearish anymore. Around 80,000 definitely feels like a defensive position. --- Interesting, the scale of big players bottom fishing isn't really aggressive, so we retail investors should be even more cautious. --- Turning from negative to positive sounds quite optimistic, but in the medium term, it really can't hold up unless policies come to the rescue. --- I believe in the increase in cold wallet inflows, which shows that some people do want to hold long-term. --- The shift to 10,700 coins sounds like a big number, but in the context of the whole market, it might not be that significant—don't overestimate it. --- A rebound from the bottom to just over 100,000 is completely reasonable, but don't expect to double immediately. Take it step by step.

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SelfSovereignSteve