In the first week of the 2026 market opening, the global financial markets laid out a heavy schedule. U.S. non-farm payroll data, China's CPI and PPI—two major economic indicators—hit the same timetable, both appearing in the same week, which is bound to stir significant ripples in the market. Behind this, not only are the traditional assets of stocks, bonds, and currencies affected, but for the cryptocurrency market—especially core assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum—this is a crucial test that concerns the short-term market trend.

Meanwhile, another major event is unfolding nearby—high-level officials from South Korea leading delegations of over 200 business giants including Samsung and SK to visit China. This is a heavyweight interaction after six years. The cooperation potential in core industries such as semiconductors and power batteries has suddenly opened up, and the geopolitical signals' influence on the market should not be underestimated.

**This week's rhythm is as follows:**

In the midweek, manufacturing PMI data from China and the U.S. will be released successively, along with the ADP employment data (commonly known as "small non-farm") from the U.S. This pre-release signaling will cause the market to enter a "preheating" state early, with sentiment often fluctuating due to these leading indicators. Meanwhile, every piece of news about the South Korea trade delegation’s schedule in China—government-business talks, project signings—could become a pivot point to influence related industry sectors.

The real turning point falls on Friday. The U.S. December non-farm payroll report and China's December CPI and PPI data will be released on the same day—an authentic "data nuclear moment." These figures will directly impact global central banks' judgment of this year's monetary policy tone, and market expectations about whether the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates in the first half of 2026 will be finally validated at this moment.

**From a fundamental perspective, the positive factors are accumulating:**

First, the warming of cross-border trade interactions sends positive signals. Especially in strategic industries like semiconductors and new energy, deepening international cooperation often sparks optimistic market expectations, which tend to translate into support for risk assets in the crypto market.

Second, U.S. labor market data is somewhat eye-catching—unemployment has risen for three consecutive months, reaching a warning line. According to historical data from Industrial Securities Research, whenever such signals appear, the probability of the Fed starting rate cuts in the next 6 to 12 months exceeds 80%. This means that the market’s current expectations of rate cuts are not just wishful thinking but are supported by data. Assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum are sensitive to rate cut expectations because rate cuts usually release liquidity, which benefits risk assets.

**A few key points for operation:**

This week will truly be a "data validation week." Before the non-farm data is released, the market will be highly tense, prone to large fluctuations due to various expectations. The most taboo thing at this time is to follow the trend blindly—chasing gains or cutting losses—short-term trading can easily lead to pitfalls. A smarter approach is to closely monitor the changes in capital flows after the data is released, following the rhythm of "first stabilize positions, then observe calmly, and finally seize opportunities."

From an allocation perspective, assets with a basis of industry consensus such as semiconductors and new energy will attract more institutional attention amid the rising international cooperation. Meanwhile, Bitcoin and Ethereum, as macro liquidity indicators, also warrant continued focus under the influence of rate cut expectations.

In simple terms, this week is the market’s "validation period." Don’t be aggressive before the data comes out; wait and see how capital moves after the release.