Whale with an 83% win rate misses out on ETH, resulting in a $900,000 unrealized loss from a short position

Experts can also misread the market. This whale, known for high-frequency trading on Hyperliquid, has made $20.95 million in profit over the past three months, but his recent short position on ETH seems to have missed the mark. Currently showing an unrealized loss of $900,000, this stands out in his trading history.

The $63.63 million missed short

According to the latest news, this whale address marked as pension-usdt.eth recently transferred 30 million USDC to Hyperliquid and established an ETH short position with 3x leverage. The current short position size is 20,000 ETH, valued at $63.63 million.

From an entry price of $3,136 to the current $3,184, ETH has risen by $48. This increase is negligible for unleveraged holders, but for a 3x leveraged short, it amplifies each ETH loss by three times. That’s why a mere 1.5% price increase resulted in a $900,000 unrealized loss.

Why this misstep is worth noting

This whale’s trading record is quite impressive. According to on-chain data, he has completed about 70 trades over the past three months with an 83% win rate, accumulating around $20.95 million in profit. Such a track record places him among top high-frequency traders.

However, his timing for shorting ETH this time seems questionable. Based on recent information, ETH has been performing strongly:

• 1-hour increase of 1.07%
• 24-hour increase of 1.18%
• 7-day increase of 7.65%
• 30-day increase of 5.21%

Against this upward momentum, shorting against the trend naturally carries higher risk. This whale’s trading style is known for high-frequency, multi-directional positions, with an average holding time of about 24 hours. This suggests he usually doesn’t hold a single-direction position long-term, but this time’s short position of $63.63 million is clearly a heavy bet.

Liquidation risk and potential developments

The most critical concern now is the liquidation price of this short. Although not explicitly provided in the news, based on 3x leverage, if ETH continues to rise to around $4,200, this position faces liquidation risk.

Looking at Hyperliquid’s platform data, the open interest currently stands at $7.77 billion, indicating a relatively active market. Large short positions in such an environment could face greater liquidity pressure.

According to related reports, this whale made about $1 million in profit through swing trading on Hyperliquid over the past week, with total profits exceeding $21 million in the last 30 days. Traders like this typically have strong risk management and are unlikely to be forced to close positions. More likely, he will adjust his positions flexibly based on market changes.

Market insights

This case actually reflects an interesting phenomenon: even traders with an 83% win rate and $20.95 million in total gains can miss the market. ETH’s recent upward trend seems to have exceeded this whale’s expectations.

From a broader perspective, high-frequency traders excel at quick reactions and flexible adjustments, but their disadvantage is the need to constantly bet. When market trends diverge from expectations, even the best traders must endure unrealized losses. The next move for this whale—whether to add to his position, cut losses, or stay on the sidelines—will be a key market focus.

Summary

A high-frequency trader with an 83% win rate and $20.95 million in cumulative gains is currently showing a $900,000 unrealized loss on his ETH short. This indicates that market uncertainty affects everyone equally. The current upward momentum in ETH seems to have broken this whale’s expectations. This case reminds us that even the most skilled traders need to respect the market, especially when using leverage. The evolution of this short position could become an important indicator of Hyperliquid market sentiment.