Regarding the market trend forecast for PEPE, opinions in the community are highly polarized. Some people, looking at just a few candlestick charts, are shouting about zeroing out, while others are digging into historical data to predict a ten-thousand-fold increase. Such a pattern is indeed too narrow.

Having been active in the crypto market for nearly 8 years and experiencing three bear markets, I want to share my understanding of PEPE's cycle today. The core logic is actually quite clear: meme coins are not purely a game of emotions, but an extreme expression of consensus. Extreme consensus leads to extreme price increases, while extreme disagreement triggers deep corrections. The essence of each cycle ultimately boils down to the rebuilding and upgrading of consensus.

Let's first look at the validation from the previous two cycles—

By the end of 2024, PEPE's market cap surged to a high of 12 billion USD. That wave was mainly driven by the frog IP combined with community operations, hitting the meme bull market trend. But I warned at the time: about 60% of that was bubble components, with speculative funds entering and exiting quickly, which would inevitably lead to a deep correction.

By 2026, the market cap fell back to around 1.5 billion USD. Many thought this was a sign of zeroing out, but that was not the case. It was a golden washout trap. Speculative capital was thoroughly cleared out, leaving only true believers, which sharply increased the purity of consensus and prepared the ground for the next big rally.

Now, we are at the starting point of the third major upward wave. The correction and shakeout are complete, the core community's faith is unbreakable, and the consensus has undergone a qualitative change. This is a test of cognition.