2026-01-05 00:24:27

Wall Street analyst Rosenberg recently issued a major warning, directly contradicting mainstream market opinions. He predicts that the US economy could indeed enter a recession in 2026, with unemployment not gradually rising but soaring outright.

What exactly does he say? Rosenberg expects the unemployment rate to hit 6% by the end of the year (currently at 4.6%), which significantly exceeds Wall Street’s moderate expectations. Even more aggressively, he believes that the recession will force the Federal Reserve to aggressively cut interest rates by as much as 125 basis points, bringing rates down to 2.25%. However, big players like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley forecast only a 50-75 basis point cut, and the Fed’s own dot plot remains extremely conservative.

His diagnosis is this: current GDP growth is actually being supported by distorted factors, such as tariffs and other artificial boosts, but the average person’s real income has long stagnated. Consumer spending is weak, and the entire economy is showing a clear K-shaped divergence—wealthier individuals getting richer, while ordinary people find it increasingly difficult.

If this really happens, the consequences will be significant. The macro narrative will completely reverse—from “sticky inflation and high interest rates” to “recession is coming, we must loosen aggressively.” All asset valuation models based on a soft landing scenario could be upended and need to be rethought.

For crypto, things get complicated. In the short term, during times of risk asset sell-offs, Bitcoin might face pressure. But if rates are really cut aggressively, the dollar weakens, and liquidity becomes abundant again, this could provide medium- to long-term strong support for the crypto market.

The real question is: has inflation truly been tamed? Is the economy’s resilience real or just an illusion? As for how the market will behave in 2026, it ultimately depends on whether this prediction or reality wins out. What do you think—should we believe the recession warning, or trust that the economy can resiliently withstand pressure? If a recession and rate cuts do happen, will Bitcoin fall first and then rise (driven by safe-haven demand and liquidity), or will it decline along with other risk assets?

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HappyToBeDumped

· 01-05 07:38

Rosenberg is serious about this, a 125 basis point rate cut... Just imagine how BTC will move at that time. The K-shaped divergence is becoming more and more obvious, ordinary people are really struggling, what can the crypto circle do? Recession is coming, and loose liquidity is actually good for crypto. Short-term selling for long-term gains, this logic makes sense, right? Don’t trust Goldman Sachs and their mild forecasts; history has shown they’ve been slapped in the face by reality every time. We’ll see in 2026. The Fed’s dot plot has never matched actual policy, and Rosenberg’s version is more down-to-earth. A 125 basis point rate cut... Just thinking about it is exciting, cash really became garbage back then. The key is that inflation hasn’t been truly tamed, and that’s the root of all subsequent problems. Short-term declines may be fierce, but in the long run, loose liquidity will cause BTC to explode. It’s just a matter of timing and how to play it. Wall Street folks love to sugarcoat data, and Rosenberg daring to tell the truth is rare. Economic resilience is all smoke and mirrors; tariffs artificially support GDP, and bottom-tier consumption has long collapsed. Recession plus rate cuts double whammy, Bitcoin’s future is uncertain—depends on who can run faster. Trust Rosenberg less than your own wallet; we need to be alive in 2026.

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governance_lurker

· 01-05 00:54

Rosenberg is making big news again; this guy makes a living by talking down the market. The K-shaped divergence theory is not wrong, but lowering interest rates by 125 basis points? Does the Federal Reserve dare to do that? Instead of guessing a recession, it's better to watch whether the dollar will truly weaken. In the short term, it's indeed panic, but aggressive rate cuts are still positive for cryptocurrencies.

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GasFeeVictim

· 01-05 00:54

Rosenberg is just the guy who likes to go against the grain and attract attention, but to be honest, the prediction of a 125 basis point hike is indeed a bit aggressive. 125 basis points? Then the dollar must be really hammered, and by then, Bitcoin's rise probably won't stop. The K-shaped divergence is actually reasonable; anyway, ordinary retail investors are just doomed to a bad ending. I don't know if a recession will come or not, but I'm holding onto my BTC for now. When liquidity loosens, I might even be able to buy the dip. This guy's predictions are always the most aggressive. Last time, he also made a pretty definitive statement about the outcome, right? Short-term risk asset sell-off, and BTC falling along with it is unavoidable, but long-term easing is truly a positive. Feels like gambling on whether Rosenberg's prophecy will come true, but the stakes are pretty high. A 125 basis point rate cut is really hard to imagine, which means we're not far from an economic barbecue.

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PoolJumper

· 01-05 00:54

Rosenberg really dares to say it, a 125 basis point rate cut? Laughable. The Federal Reserve wouldn't have that kind of guts. Recession is coming, and no one can predict how the crypto market will move. It all depends on when liquidity will be relaxed—whether to crash first or rally first. The stagnant income of ordinary people hits home. The K-shaped divergence truly can't be sustained. Instead of guessing what 2026 will look like, it's better to seize the opportunities now while there's still a chance to profit. Who knows what will happen next year? Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and others have always been optimistic in their forecasts. This time, Rosenberg is probably going to be seen as a lunatic again. History repeats itself.

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ForkThisDAO

· 01-05 00:53

Rosenberg, this guy just likes to go against the grain, but the 125 basis points figure is really scary... The K-shaped divergence is so heartbreaking, ordinary people really can't breathe. Short-term decline, medium-term rise? Easy to say, but when that day comes, you'll probably need several limit-downs to survive. If a recession really happens and liquidity is abundant? I just want to know how many people would still dare to go long then. Has inflation been brought under control... Haha, that question should have been asked a long time ago. Bitcoin as a safe haven? That's what they say, but why was no one using Bitcoin in 2008... The big players cutting rates by 50 basis points vs. Rosenberg's 125 basis points, who the hell would believe such a huge gap? The tariff policies supporting GDP, honestly, are just self-indulgence. Let's wait and see, come 2026, we'll see if these analyses are correct. The real risk isn't in the recession, but in who can survive until the easing begins.

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GasFeeNightmare

· 01-05 00:53

Rosenberg, this guy really dares to say it, 125 basis points? He's basically betting his life on it. He’s right about the K-shaped divergence. Right now, the rich are having a blast, while ordinary people are just eating dirt. If a recession really hits and rates are cut so aggressively, short-term risk assets will definitely get wiped out. Bitcoin can't escape. But in the long run, as liquidity loosens and the dollar weakens, cryptocurrencies might have a chance? Call it an opportunity if you want to sound nice, or gambling if you want to be blunt. The question is, who dares to gamble? This prediction is too fierce.

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ContractExplorer

· 01-05 00:39

Rosenberg, this guy really dares to speak. A 125 basis point rate cut is indeed outrageous, but to be fair, the K-shaped divergence has been obvious for a long time. If a rate cut really happens, the crypto market will definitely benefit, but I'm just worried that the previous fall was too painful. The resilience of the economy is hard to tell whether real or fake; anyway, ordinary people's accounts are really shrinking.

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MemeTokenGenius

· 01-05 00:26

Rosenberg is once again bearish. 125 basis points? That's crazy. Only when it actually drops will the crypto market become the main course. I believe in the K-shaped divergence, but there's no problem with the economy lasting until 2026. Interest rates won't be that low. If the rate cut cycle begins, BTC will definitely first decline, then as liquidity increases, it will skyrocket. The key is timing the entry. This prediction feels like just storytelling. It's true that ordinary people's incomes are stagnating, but the Federal Reserve probably isn't that aggressive. If a recession were really coming, I would have already gone all in. I'm still observing now, and it seems we need to wait for Q1 next year's data. Rosenberg has said similar things before, and the market still rose. We can only say that future outcomes depend on the actual actions of the Federal Reserve, not predictions. Expectations of rate cuts will inevitably lead to dollar depreciation. Whether this is good or bad for crypto prices is really hard to say.

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