2026-01-04 14:28:01

The recent statements by the Federal Reserve Chair have caused quite a stir in the market. Inflation is no longer the main issue; the focus has shifted to the risks of a slowdown in the labor market, which means the Fed's policy stance is quietly adjusting—from fighting inflation at all costs to maintaining employment stability.

The problem is that there is no consensus within the Fed on the future policy path, coupled with economic data uncertainties, making rate cuts a bumpy road ahead. For the crypto market, this means the long-anticipated liquidity dividends may be delayed.

Looking at the data more specifically, the probability of a rate cut in January is close to zero, and in March it barely exceeds 50%. The dot plot indicates that there might only be one rate cut throughout 2026. In other words, the crypto market in the first half of the year is likely to be volatile, with high-leverage altcoins facing a bloodbath, and mainstream coins also under pressure.

However, the situation in the second half of the year could be different. If the labor market truly weakens, the rate cut policy will be officially implemented, and liquidity can then be expected to be released, allowing the crypto ecosystem to truly benefit. Of course, systemic risks still loom overhead, and caution must not be taken lightly.

How to survive? Three key points must be strictly followed: First, immediately reduce leverage, clear out junk coins, and cut down on futures positions; second, focus on mainstream coins, choosing sectors with strong resilience; third, never go all-in, keep enough cash reserves, and prepare for opportunities in the second half of the year.

The game rules in 2026 have changed; it’s no longer about who earns the most but about who can survive until the end. Endure the pain of the first half, wait for the easing policies to truly take effect, and then it will be time to turn things around.

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CryptoFortuneTeller

· 5h ago

Here we go again, getting wiped out in the first half and making a comeback in the second half. I feel like I say this every year. Selling off trash coins is definitely necessary, but mainstream coins can't withstand leverage either. Right now, it's really just about holding onto Bitcoin and Ethereum and passing the time. The words "systemic risk" have become so common that they’re starting to sound like a worn-out record. Having cash reserves is the right move, but when the opportunity truly comes, who can really hold on?

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NonFungibleDegen

· 01-04 22:58

ngl the fed talking in circles while we're just bag holding... this is peak comedy fr fr

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MerkleDreamer

· 01-04 14:57

There was no real hope in the first half of the year; those who went all-in can only lie flat now. Interest rate cuts are nowhere in sight, and playing with high leverage now is just seeking death. Wait, does the dot plot really only show one rate cut? The Federal Reserve is too stubborn. We need to quickly liquidate junk coins, or else a bloodbath is inevitable. Mainstream coins are truly resilient, but not invincible; macro factors still matter. Opportunities in the second half of the year exist, provided we make it that far—cash is truly life. This round of market is a test of mentality; forget about the get-rich-quick schemes. The Fed insiders can't even agree on a conclusion; worrying about it is useless—just stay steady. Feels like we're entering a long night of staying up; who still has the energy to watch K-lines? Talking about reducing leverage is easy, but everyone knows how painful it is to cut losses.

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ForkMaster

· 01-04 14:57

It's the same old "survive to win" rhetoric... I already made back the money for my three kids' milk powder through arbitrage in forks, and you're still worried about interest rate cuts? The Federal Reserve drags on and on, basically because the data isn't strong enough. My advice is—if you're still trading contracts now, you're just here to give away money. Clearing out trash coins is the real deal. The second half of the year is when the turnaround will happen? I've heard that three years ago, haha.

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ZKProofEnthusiast

· 01-04 14:54

The Federal Reserve is swaying again, and this time we really need to seriously reduce leverage. Trash coins should be cleared out. By the way, how did we survive the turbulence in the first half of the year? It was just resisting with mainstream coins. The liquidity for the second half of the year will really arrive, and we’ll talk about it then. Right now, those going all-in are just cannon fodder.

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SandwichTrader

· 01-04 14:53

降息遥遥无期，山寨币们怕是要凉凉了上半年别想着暴富，活着才是赢家杠杆爆仓的各位，这波该长记性了等下半年吧，现在囤现金才是王道主流币抱紧，垃圾币全清，这个逻辑没毛病梭哈的朋友们，醒醒，2026就得靠活着赚钱

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DefiPlaybook

· 01-04 14:48

The Fed's move this time is just fishing, first holding the market's appetite, and only releasing liquidity in the second half of the year. To put it plainly, the first half is a window for bloodletting small investors, and the set of contract leverage should have been cut off long ago. --- The probability of zero rate cuts in January—once I saw this data, I knew I’d have to endure again. Instead of staring at the FOMC every day, it’s better to start clearing out junk coins now, to avoid getting caught when the market turns. --- Tsk, same old trick again, shifting focus from inflation to employment, and in the end, it’s still about cutting rates? The problem is, each person inside the Fed has their own story, and we retail investors can only watch. Don’t expect any market action in the first half of the year. --- The phrase "Cash is king" really needs to be engraved in the mind this year. It’s not too late to act when policies loosen; right now, those going all-in are just here to take your money. --- A weakening labor market is the real trigger; everything else is just虚的. Playing the long game until 2026—those who can’t hold on will be out. --- I laughed at the delay of liquidity dividends. These days, making money isn’t that easy—just stay alive first.

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AirdropFreedom

· 01-04 14:48

The Federal Reserve is playing word games again; anyway, we still have to cut interest rates in the end. The problem is, we can't afford to wait. --- What to do with the market volatility in the first half of the year? Those with high leverage have already been liquidated, and those still risking it all are truly brave. --- Basically, we'll see after this half-year. Junk coins should be cleared out, don't feel bad about those floating gains. --- Liquidity delay? The market has indeed been dull these past two months. The real opportunity will come when policies loosen in the second half of the year. --- Contract positions must be cut. Last time, I got wiped out because I didn't heed advice. Now, I only trade spot and mainstream coins. --- The phrase "systemic risk" is well said; it feels like a black swan event could happen at any time. --- One rate cut? Then the first half of 2026 is basically out of the question. It's more reliable to stock up on stablecoins. --- Those who live until the end are the winners. This hits home; not everyone can resist the temptation of these six months.

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CryptoSourGrape

· 01-04 14:46

If I hadn't been greedy and gone all-in on altcoins back then, I wouldn't be in such a mess now... With interest rate cuts nowhere in sight, my wallet feels like it's nowhere to be found either.

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