This week, the main focus in the global commodity markets is undoubtedly the Venezuela situation. U.S. military actions have increased geopolitical risks, directly impacting precious metals and energy markets. Spot gold has become the preferred safe-haven asset, with significant buying interest. Recently, the CME raised margin requirements repeatedly, suppressing some long positions, but this technical suppression is fading. Positions that were forced to close earlier are gradually loosening, and market sentiment is expected to stabilize.

The gold trend looks promising. Although there was a correction at the start of 2025, the current pace has changed—safe-haven demand and the Fed's rate cut expectations are resonating. While there are disagreements within the Federal Reserve about the pace of rate cuts, the market generally expects at least two rate cuts in 2026, which directly reduces the opportunity cost of holding gold and further opens up the upside potential for gold prices.

The oil market is a bit more complex. Venezuela is the world's largest oil reserve holder, and supply disruptions will definitely push short-term prices higher, potentially triggering a rally. However, the reality is that the global oil market has been in a state of oversupply for a long time, and this pattern is unlikely to change in the short term. Additionally, restoring production capacity takes time, so how far oil prices can rise remains uncertain.

From an operational perspective, gold is suitable for buying on dips to build long positions, but close attention should be paid to how the Venezuela situation develops. Meanwhile, U.S. non-farm payroll data and PMI will also influence market expectations for rate cuts. These are key variables to monitor.