January 04 | BTC Trend Analysis

Core Viewpoints

Current Price: $91,037 (as of 09:51 AM on January 4)

Short-term Outlook: Slightly bullish in the short term. Technical indicators show BTC exhibiting clear bullish momentum on lower timeframes (1-hour/4-hour), testing the upper Bollinger Band, MACD displaying positive histogram, and multiple indicators forming a bullish alignment. Short positions were liquidated to the tune of $52.3M within 24 hours, significantly exceeding long liquidations of $5.9M, squeezing out bears and providing upward momentum. Derivatives open interest increased to $57.8B (+1.66% over 24h), funding rates remain positive (Binance 0.01%, Bybit 0.009%), indicating prevailing bullish sentiment.

Key Support Levels:

• First Support: $90,177 (1-hour Bollinger Middle Band)
• Second Support: $89,222 (4-hour Bollinger Middle Band)
• Strong Support Zone: $89,000 (Accumulated long liquidations around $127M near 90,635, forming support below)

Key Resistance Levels:

• First Resistance: $91,233 (4-hour Bollinger Upper Band)
• Second Resistance: $91,270+ (Cluster of short liquidations, approximately $18M concentrated at 91,125)
• Technical Target: $91,800-$92,200 (Extension of 4-hour upper band + short liquidation zone)

Technical Analysis

Multi-timeframe Indicators

Price Action

BTC rebounded from approximately $89,800 on the 50-period 1-hour SMA, then steadily pushed up toward $91,000 for consolidation. Price remains above key moving averages on 1-hour and 4-hour charts, testing the upper Bollinger Band, indicating strong short-term momentum. On daily, EMA12 ($89,056) is below EMA26 ($89,180), but current price is well above both, confirming a healthy medium-term uptrend.

Derivatives and On-chain Data

Futures and Options Market

• Open Interest: Total $57.8B, up +1.66% in 24h, indicating continuous influx of new capital
• Funding Rates: Remain positive on major exchanges (Binance 0.01%, Bybit 0.009%), favoring longs
• Options Max Pain: Concentrated around $90,000 (expiring Jan 4-5), total open interest $29.1B
• Liquidation Data: $58.2M total in 24h, with shorts liquidating $52.3M versus $5.9M longs, with short stops providing upward push

Liquidation Risk Distribution

High density of long liquidations below, with about $71M clustered near 91,027, and $1B+ in open interest around 88k, forming potential support on a pullback. Short liquidations are concentrated around $91,125 (about $18M); breaking above could trigger chain reactions of liquidations, pushing prices higher.

Exchange Flows

Net outflows on Jan 2-3:

• Jan 3 Net Outflow: -336 BTC
• Jan 2 Net Outflow: -56 BTC
• Exchange Reserves: Decreased from 2.757M BTC on Dec 30 to 2.751M BTC on Jan 3

Persistent net outflows and declining reserves suggest investors are transferring BTC off exchanges for long-term holding, reducing available supply for selling, which is a medium-term bullish signal.

Market Sentiment and Narrative

Community Views

Market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic. BTC regained above $90,000 on Jan 3, with technical analysts viewing this as a low-risk rebound zone. Mainstream opinions include:

• Aggressive: Support from inverse head-and-shoulders pattern, target $160,000-$170,000, possibly breaking $300,000
• Conservative: Cycle top around $126,000, followed by a correction to $74,000-$82,000
• Cautious: Expect further retracement below $60,000 before re-entry

Institutional and Policy Movements

Key recent events in 48 hours:

• Institutional Holdings: Tether increased BTC holdings on Dec 31, now holding over 96,000 BTC
• ETF Flows: BlackRock shifted BTC/ETH holdings to Coinbase Prime; spot ETF trading volume surpassed $X (placeholder)
• Regulatory Shift: SEC anti-crypto commissioner resigned; Republican committee viewed as a pro-crypto signal
• Global Adoption: Turkmenistan legalized mining; ongoing rumors of strategic reserves

$779M Mainstream Narrative

The 17th anniversary of BTC (Jan 3) prompts reevaluation of the Genesis Block’s anti-fiat rescue concept. The fiat devaluation narrative heats up (USD has depreciated 97% in purchasing power since 1913), with institutional allocations and national reserves positioning BTC as a hedge. Despite some crypto fatigue, BTC’s fundamental value and regulatory progress make it a preferred long-term store of value amid a cooling of altcoin speculation.

Trading Strategy Recommendations

$123M Bullish Entry

• Entry Zone: $90,500-$91,000 (above 1-hour Bollinger middle band, after liquidation zones clear)
• Target Levels:
  • Conservative: $91,800 (4-hour upper band + short liquidation zone)
  • Aggressive: $92,200 (extended resistance)
• Stop Loss: Below $89,500 (4-hour SMA50 + support zone)
• Risk-Reward: Enter at $90,750, stop at $89,500, target $92,000, R:R approximately 1.2:1

$2T Risk Warning

Despite short-term technical bullish signals, caution is advised:

1. RSI Overbought: 1-hour 68.2, 4-hour 69.7 approaching overbought threshold, short-term correction risk rising
2. Divergence Risk: If price makes new highs but RSI does not, watch for technical pullback
3. Support Breakdown: Falling below $89,000 could trigger chain stops, leading to a retracement toward $88,000-$86,000
4. Macro Variables: Weekend liquidity is lower; monitor US stock and macro data on Monday for risk asset impact

Summary

BTC is currently in a short-term bullish phase, with multi-timeframe technicals aligning upward, derivatives data favoring longs, and on-chain net outflows providing medium-term support. The immediate upside target is $91,800-$92,200, but watch for RSI overbought signals and potential technical corrections. Maintaining support above $90,000 and clearing short liquidation zones could extend the rebound to higher resistance levels; failure to hold $89,000 warrants reassessment of bullish structure and waiting for lower support confirmation. Overall, under risk management, the bias is to buy on dips in the short term, with strict stop-losses to handle sudden volatility.