2026-01-03 23:51:51

MicroStrategy ( ‎$MSTR ).. When birds return to their nests

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Do you remember when everyone was racing to buy MSTR at $400 and $500? Back then, no one was buying a "software company" or even "Bitcoin".. they were buying "momentum" (Momentum).
Today, the chart tells us the real story away from the noise of expectations.
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1. Return to the fundamentals (The Shelf):
Look at the shaded area on the chart (Between $118 and $194). These are not just support lines; this is called a "Volume Shelf" or "Liquidity Shelf".
In this range, the largest accumulation of shares occurred in 2024. The price is now at $157, meaning the stock has returned to its "old home" after a wild rally that ended with a setback exceeding 60% from the peak.
The market is now testing investor conviction:
Do you still believe in the story?
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2. The stock and Bitcoin.. a "killer love" relationship:
To understand what happened, you must grasp one simple equation that governs MicroStrategy stock
‎$MSTR = Bitcoin Price + "Premium"(.
In the rally:
The stock behaves like a "Leveraged Bitcoin" )Leveraged Bitcoin(.
The company issues shares )with a premium( to buy Bitcoin, which raises the value of both the stock and Bitcoin in a positive feedback loop.
Investors paid $2 and $3 for every $1 of Bitcoin the company owns, just to get this leverage.
In the decline:
What we see on the chart is a "Premium Compression" )Premium Compression( process. When Bitcoin's price stabilizes or drops slightly, MSTR's stock collapses exponentially because investors stop paying that huge premium.
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Summary:
The stock is now on the "edge" )The Shelf(.
Holding above $150 means that the "smart money" that previously accumulated in these areas is still holding its positions and sees the current discount as an opportunity to re-enter.
Breaking this shelf means the market has decided to strip the company of its magic, treating it as a traditional Bitcoin fund without a premium.
My advice:
Do not treat MSTR as a safe alternative to Bitcoin.
It is a "speculative tool" par excellence.
If you are optimistic about Bitcoin, the asset )BTC( is always more merciful than its shadow )MSTR( during storms.
And you.. are you buying the "shelf" or waiting for the bottom?)

BTC1,63%

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Moathalmahdi

2026-01-03 14:13:52

#AreYouBullishOrBearishToday? #CryptoMarketPrediction
PEPE, BONK, and DOGE rise, and the meme coin market cap approaches $39 billion

The market capitalization of meme coins increased by 8% over the past 24 hours, reaching its highest level in two weeks, while open interest and trading volume surged sharply.

On Friday, meme coins like Pepe, Bonk, and Dogecoin were among the top-performing cryptocurrencies, posting significant gains as the market prepares for 2026.

The market cap of meme coins rose by 8% to $39.45 billion, hitting a two-week high and indicating strong demand.

PEPE led the gains with a 23.6% increase, followed by BONK at 10% and DOGE at 8%, supported by influencer interest and ambitious forecasts for 2026.

The rise in open interest for meme coins over the past 24 hours reflects increased bullish bets.

The market cap of meme coins increased by $3 billion.

The recent surge in meme coin prices, triggered by Ethereum founder changing his profile picture to an NFT meme, pushed the total market cap to a two-week high of $39.45 billion on Friday.

The market cap of meme coins last exceeded $39 billion on December 20. The total market cap of cryptocurrencies in this sector increased by 8% over the past 24 hours.

The meme coin built on Ethereum, PEPE, led the gains, rising 23.6% in the past 24 hours. Its Solana-based competitor, BONK, increased by 10% daily, while DOGE, the largest meme coin by market cap, jumped 8% in the same timeframe.

Although this performance isn't exactly a rally, it hints at a potential "meme" season, influenced by several factors including activity around a perpetual contract for meme coins that allows traders to leverage up to 100x.

Before the surge in meme coins on Friday, open interest also increased, with PEPE's open interest rising 77% over the past 24 hours to $441 million.

Open interest indicates the total number of derivative contracts that have not yet been closed. In a futures contract, there must be a buyer closing the contract for every seller.

Open interest for PENGU increased by over 27% during the day to $90.73 million, while DOGE's open interest rose by approximately 4.5% to $1.71 billion.

The chart above also shows a notable increase in daily trading volume of meme coins in the derivatives market, led by PEPE with a 402% increase. Overall, the daily trading volume of meme coins increased by 35% over the past 24 hours, reaching $4.75 billion.

The rise in open interest and trading volume of meme coins indicates bullish momentum in the market as investors open more contracts in anticipation of higher prices.

The current price rally of meme coins is supported by TOTAL3, which represents the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum, showing strong technical structure over the past two days.

The chart shows that TOTAL3 increased by 22% since Wednesday, reaching an intraday high of $848 billion on Friday. This rise occurred within an ascending parallel channel, as shown below on the four-hour chart.

Investors bought the dips when the RSI dropped to oversold levels of 25 in mid-December. Currently, RSI stands at 65, indicating a shift in investor interest toward altcoins with increasing momentum.

If TOTAL3 can break above the strong resistance at ( billion, represented by the upper trendline of the wedge and the 200-day simple moving average )SMA$848 , it could rise toward the wedge's measured target at ( billion. If that happens, altcoins, including major meme coins, may continue their recovery in the coming weeks.

Finally, the overall sentiment in the crypto market has moved out of "Extreme Fear," suggesting the market is preparing for a rebound.

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