Ethereum, after encountering resistance at $3,143, has now retreated to the key support level of $3,049. If this price level is broken, the market generally expects the next target to be in the $2,928 range.

From a technical perspective, support levels like this are important because they often gather a large number of stop-loss orders and buy expectations. When the price approaches a breakdown point, traders face a dilemma—whether to hold their positions or exit early. Historical data shows that once a support level is broken, it often triggers a chain reaction of stop-loss orders, leading to a rapid price decline, which is the "downward spiral" many investors worry about.

However, it is worth noting that market participants have different mindsets. Bullish traders are looking for opportunities to buy low, while bearish traders are waiting for the best moment to short, and holders are anxiously monitoring real-time market movements. This tug-of-war between bullish and bearish forces essentially reflects differing opinions on Ethereum's short-term trend.

Historically, breaking a support level does not necessarily mean a permanent decline. Mainstream cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin have often experienced V-shaped reversals after losing technical support levels. The key lies in whether the rebound after the breakdown is strong enough and how long it lasts, which often determines whether it is a "false breakdown" or a "true trend reversal."

It is important to emphasize that purely technical analysis has its limitations. Market sentiment fluctuations, regulatory policy changes, liquidity pressures on exchanges, and other factors can instantly alter price trajectories. Past support level analyses often fail in the face of sudden risk events. Therefore, when trading Ethereum, one should pay attention to both technical signals and macro factors, as well as closely monitor risk events. Short-term trading should be cautious to avoid falling into traps of chasing rallies or selling in panic.