2026-01-03 14:20:38

From the monthly chart of Bitcoin, this rebound rally may have already reached its end. The trend on the monthly chart appears somewhat weak, indicating a possible transition into a longer-term correction phase.

Based on the current pattern, it will take approximately 4 to 6 months from now to complete the entire move. Specifically, January and February may continue to see a rebound trend, followed by a clear downtrend in the next three months, and then about three months to complete the formation of the bottom area.

During this process, there are basically no opportunities to participate in the decline phase; successfully avoiding the risk is already a victory. The real trading opportunities will appear during the bottoming phase, when there will be ample space for swing trading. Of course, this is just a possible technical projection, and market changes always carry various uncertainties.

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FOMOSapien

· 14h ago

The monthly trend is really weak. Looking at this rhythm, it seems like it will consolidate for a while. Waiting for the bottom to buy in. Currently, those taking the plunge are all rookies. 4 to 6 months? To be honest, it feels like it will take even longer. Anyway, I’m clearing out and waiting for the bottom. From a technical perspective, no one can escape the decline. Just wait for the opportunity. This rebound really lost momentum. That’s how I see it too. Don’t rush to catch the bottom; time will tell. The bottoming process is the real opportunity. Entering early just invites trouble.

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GmGnSleeper

· 22h ago

4 to 6 months? Brother, your prediction is way too detailed. Why do I feel like the monthly chart is just fooling us? --- Honestly, the bottoming phase is the real profit opportunity. For now, just play it safe and watch. --- Weakness is just weakness. Anyway, I’m just holding now, waiting for the bottom before making other moves. --- Is there really no chance during the decline phase? Isn’t there still a bottom-fishing opportunity? --- A 6-month timeline is a bit long, haha. Who can predict so accurately? --- After waking up, I found someone else playing with the monthly chart again. Will they get it right this time? --- Swing trading sounds easy to talk about, but when the time comes, it’s a whole different story. --- I usually don’t trust the monthly chart stuff, but this analysis approach is somewhat interesting. --- Uncertainty is well said, so when to buy and when to sell is the key. --- Just wait for the bottom to form. Anyway, I can’t even tell if I’m eating noodles or not right now.

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PretendingToReadDocs

· 01-04 00:52

Another projection of 4 to 6 months, will this time be correct...

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gas_fee_therapist

· 01-03 14:48

Hmm... 4 to 6 months to bottom? Looks like they're trying to catch the bottom. --- When the monthly chart weakens, they start telling stories. I've heard this routine too many times. --- Wait, are you saying it will drop for three months straight after February? I don't feel that pessimistic. --- There is room for a wave in the bottoming phase, but can we really catch the bottom? That's the real test. --- Technical analysis can never keep up with black swan events; it's better to keep some positions just in case. --- I believe in the tail end of the rebound, but this schedule... is a bit too precise. --- Avoiding risks is the most important thing, more than anything else. I've already reduced my holdings. --- Six months is so long; who knows what opportunities might arise in between.

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PaperHandSister

· 01-03 14:47

Here comes another prediction, feels like I always get it right... Wait, no, most of the time I get it wrong haha Hold on, are you saying January and February can still go up? Then I'll keep holding A three-month decline is pretty harsh, and I might lose my mind again then I've heard the phrase "bottoming out is the only chance" a hundred times, but no one can pinpoint it exactly Anyway, technical analysis is something you believe in if it works for you, and dismiss if it doesn't, depends on whether you're making money or not

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probably_nothing_anon

· 01-03 14:46

Monthly chart is weak again, waiting for a bottoming process. Is this for real this time? --- 4 to 6 months? Should have already exited long ago. It's still early to say now. --- Avoiding risk is winning? Listen to this, and a surprise market move is sure to come. --- Waiting for the bottoming process until the end of time is pointless; better to position now. --- This is all the technical analysis ability there is; the market will slap you awake. --- No chance during the decline, so don't regret when it rises. --- A weak monthly chart is nothing new. Should we wait to see if volume confirms? --- Bottoming takes 3 months; feels like I need to change my tune again. --- It's technical analysis again, always the same story. --- The rebound is just about over; anyway, I’ve already closed my positions early.

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MetaMisfit

· 01-03 14:43

It's another 4-6 month story. I keep listening over and over but never get tired of it. --- Avoiding risk is victory. I’ve noted this, and I’m starting to avoid right now. --- Only during the bottoming phase is there a chance? Then we should be clearing out now. --- Monthly chart is weak, the signal is here, but who dares to bet? --- Listening to technical analysis is just for fun; anyway, next month will be a new story. --- Waiting for the bottom? I’m afraid by the time that day comes, I’ll have already chased the high. --- This wave of rebound is at its end... Why does it sound to me like it’s always the end?

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SchrodingerGas

· 01-03 14:42

Monthly trend weak? Buddy, your prediction logic seems a bit like fitting past data. Where's the real on-chain evidence?

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Ramen_Until_Rich

· 01-03 14:24

It's the same old story again. When the monthly chart shows weakness, an adjustment is needed. I've heard this argument hundreds of times... I'm confident about the bottoming opportunity, but I don't believe this timetable will match up. Wait, you say there might be a rebound in January and February? Then can I make another move? Instead of guessing the top or bottom, it's better to focus on the months of bottoming. That really resonates with me. After writing so many words, I still say—the market will always catch you off guard. Good risk management is more important than anything else.

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SatoshiHeir

· 01-03 14:22

Once again, it's the same monthly cycle theory, which I've seen too many times. It should be pointed out that your 4-6 month projection framework actually overlooks the key signals from on-chain data.

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