VanEck 2026 Outlook: Downward correction may decrease by 40%, the four-year cycle remains valid

DeepFlowTech · 2026-01-03T03:23:11+00:00

VanEck Digital Asset Head Matthew Sigel believes that the digital asset market signals in 2026 are complex but positive, with Bitcoin volatility decreasing and declines possibly narrowing to 40%. The market is digesting a decline of about 35%, and 2026 is expected to be a year of consolidation. He recommends dollar-cost averaging into Bitcoin and adjusting based on market conditions.

DeepFlowTech

2026-01-03 03:23:11

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Deep Tide TechFlow News, January 3rd, VanEck Digital Asset Head Matthew Sigel stated in the 2026 Outlook that digital assets are showing complex but positive signals at the start of 2026. Bitcoin declined about 80% in the last cycle, but its actual volatility has since decreased by nearly half, implying that the current decline could be reduced to around 40%. The market has currently priced in about 35% of the decline.

Meanwhile, the four-year cycle pattern in Bitcoin’s history (often peaking after the US election window) remains valid after the high point in early October 2025. This pattern suggests that 2026 is more likely to be a year of consolidation rather than a sharp rise or crash.

In 2026, global liquidity is mixed—interest rate cut expectations provide support, but US liquidity has slightly tightened due to the collision between AI-driven capital expenditure boom and fragile financing markets, leading to wider credit spreads. Leverage in the crypto ecosystem has been reset after multiple washouts. On-chain activity remains weak but shows signs of improvement.

Matthew Sigel stated that in this context, it is advisable to establish a disciplined Bitcoin allocation of 1% to 3% through dollar-cost averaging, and to increase holdings during leverage liquidations and reduce during overheated market speculation.

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