2025-12-31 17:20:59

Attention everyone, don't believe all the cheers of "bull market start" on the trading software. I've been in the crypto space for 8 years, and I want to be honest: this current wave is definitely not an ordinary rally that retail investors can casually follow. The real situation is—institutions have spent half a year positioning themselves, just waiting for the Federal Reserve's move to start harvesting. Those who can't see through this layer will suffer losses in a short squeeze market.

Why do I say that? Looking back at the epic surge in 2020, it's clear. When the pandemic broke out, the Federal Reserve launched unlimited QE, flooding the market with massive amounts of capital. Back then, the chips were dispersed among retail investors, like a pile of loose sand; as the funds entered, prices started to rise—BTC shot from $3,800 to $69,000, ETH from $80 to $4,891. That was a true nationwide celebration.

But the current market is completely different. The chips have long been tightly held by institutions, with very little circulating. This is the biggest difference compared to back then.

Looking at actual data makes it even more obvious. Grayscale's BTC Trust now holds over 650,000 BTC—importantly, the unlock volume in the past six months is less than 1%. In other words, 650,000 BTC are effectively locked away as "family heirlooms," unable to flow out in the short term. As for Ethereum, a major fund's related holdings have been increasing over the past year. This institutional move clearly indicates they are waiting for the market to turn. Retail investors either follow the rhythm or wait to be squeezed out.

BTC0,14%

ETH-0,42%

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

18 Likes

Reward
18
10
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

GateUser-00be86fc

· 01-01 17:14

Grayscale locks 650,000 BTC? This guy's analysis is spot on, retail investors really need to wake up --- That wave in 2020, I was also involved. Now it's a completely different story, the concentration of holdings is truly terrifying --- Wait, he says 99% will suffer losses? Where does this data come from? Feels a bit absolute --- Institutions started to harvest after half a year of布局, when will retail investors be able to turn things around? It's affecting the mentality --- 65,000 BTC locked up and still saying it can't flow out? I need to think more about this logic --- Although the words are straightforward, that's just the reality. Those who underestimate institutions are already regretting it --- It's the same explanation again. Feels like every time there's a market move, someone warns like this --- So what should we do now? Follow or not? Give a clear direction, brother --- Ethereum's top funds are still increasing their holdings, which is a signal, indicating they are still bullish --- From 3800 to 69000, back then retail investors were really celebrating. Thinking about it now, it's quite regretful

View OriginalReply0

Frontrunner

· 01-01 11:03

The grayscale lock-up of 650,000 BTC unlocking less than 1% is indeed a bold move. Retail investors blindly following is really courting death. Institutions are playing a big game, while we are playing snake chess, it's not even the same game. I think the 99% being cut off figure is still conservative, honestly. Oh my god, this is why I only watch and not move right now. Wait until the institutions finish accumulating then talk. The wave of nationwide frenzy in 2020 versus the currently locked-up chips, the pattern has completely reversed. No doubt about it, retail investors are always a step behind.

View OriginalReply0

MelonField

· 2025-12-31 17:52

After 8 years, are we still talking about this? Grayscale locking 650,000 coins really determines the trend? I think, institutions are institutions, retail investors are retail investors, each playing their own game. Don't be so absolute; who can truly see through the market... I'll just wait for the day I'm proven wrong. What’s the difference between the 2020 wave and now? Can the pandemic bonus be replicated? That said, I still have to take a gamble. Institutions plan to harvest after half a year of layout? Then I’ll just wait to be cut. Anyway, it's a matter of time and lessons learned. Less circulating chips mean what? It also means that once the price soars, it can't stop. Thinking about this logic in reverse also makes sense.

View OriginalReply0

NFTArchaeologist

· 2025-12-31 17:51

Grayscale locks up 650,000 coins; this pace clearly indicates they are waiting for a harvest. --- To put it bluntly, retail investors following the bull market are just providing liquidity for institutions. --- The nationwide frenzy in 2020 is long gone; now it's just a game among institutions. --- Although it hurts to say, 99% will suffer losses, but this is indeed the reality. --- All the chips are in the hands of big players; what are retail investors still excitedly shouting about? --- Must admit, very few see through this layer. --- Whenever the Federal Reserve acts, the script of institutions starting to harvest profits is just too cliché. --- Still thinking about making money in a short squeeze? Wake up, everyone. --- Half a year of strategic planning just for this moment; what do retail investors have to compete with? --- With circulating chips scarce, this is the real danger signal.

View OriginalReply0

VitalikFanboy42

· 2025-12-31 17:51

Honestly, I don't really believe this wave. It feels like the usual trap to cut the leeks. With institutions holding so many chips, if retail investors jump in, won't they just be slaughtered alive? Just look at Grayscale's 650,000 BTC—it's clear this is a carefully planned hunt. The 2020 wave was different; it was truly a nationwide celebration. Now? Heh, now it's an elite game.

View OriginalReply0

SwapWhisperer

· 2025-12-31 17:51

Well... Indeed, I understand the logic behind Grayscale's 650,000 BTC lock-up, but do retail investors really have no chance? Institutions are waiting for the market, are we just waiting to be wiped out? That's a bit harsh. The nationwide frenzy in 2020 is long gone; the current market is completely different from back then. Honestly, not many people see through this layer; I believe the data that 99% are losing money. The chips are tightly held... So how can we participate? Are we just going to watch it rise?

View OriginalReply0

DefiPlaybook

· 2025-12-31 17:40

Oh no, here comes the story of another round of chopping leeks. To be honest, I believe the logic behind Gray's 650,000 BTC being locked up and not released, but do retail investors really keep up with the pace? Institutions are waiting, and we can wait too. The question is, where do we get the APY while waiting?

View OriginalReply0

GasFeeCrybaby

· 2025-12-31 17:30

650,000 BTC are locked, retail investors are still chasing the rally... This is the gap between retail investors and institutions.

View OriginalReply0

ForkTongue

· 2025-12-31 17:29

650,000 BTC locked, and this is still called a bull market? I think it's just institutions quietly harvesting.

View OriginalReply0

GateUser-afe07a92

· 2025-12-31 17:21

Bro, those words really hit home. Locking 650,000 BTC is truly outrageous. Institutions have really gone all out; retail investors like us are just destined to be the sickle's prey. I also made a good profit during that wave in 2020, but it's different now... the chips are all in the hands of big players. Honestly, people who can't make sense of these data should be more cautious. Don't get blinded by the bullish market narrative. They've already set up the game, just waiting for us to come in and take the bait. It feels like this wave of market movement is entirely calculated by institutions; retail investors have no chance. You can't outrun the flow of funds; you need to understand the market before taking action.

View OriginalReply0