#数字资产市场动态 【Zcash Short-term Pressure, Dual Warnings from Technical and On-chain Signals】

After so many years of trading, I want to share a straightforward logic with everyone: Zcash's recent decline doesn't look like a rebound; it seems more like energy accumulation before a deep drop. To understand this judgment, we need to look at three dimensions.

**Technical analysis is already looking grim**

Focusing on the 1-hour K-line, EMA30 and MA30 have already formed a death cross, and the price is firmly pressed below the middle band of the Bollinger Bands — currently stuck at 535.39. The negative MACD histogram is still expanding, and the DIF has also crossed below zero, indicating no signs of diminishing selling pressure. 525 is a critical support level; if this support collapses, the 520 level will face significant resistance. Once volume and momentum break through, it could easily trigger a chain reaction of sell-offs.

**On-chain abnormal signals should not be ignored**

Within the past 24 hours, several large holders have been clearly transferring coins to exchanges, and while the selling pressure hasn't reached an extreme, it is indeed rising. Perpetual contract funding rates have already turned negative, and retail investors' sentiment is also pessimistic. Interestingly, the short positions haven't accumulated to panic levels, suggesting this decline might be gradual — not a sharp crash, but a slow, downward drift.

**News sentiment offers little help**

The privacy coin sector hasn't had any positive narratives recently, and regulatory concerns are still hanging over. Mainstream funds are now pouring into BTC and top-tier Layer 1 projects, causing liquidity for established privacy coins like Zcash to be continuously diverted. This makes a rebound somewhat difficult.

**My response plan**

For those holding coins: consider reducing positions or hedging when the price rebounds to the 535-540 range. If it falls below 525, don't hesitate — exit immediately.

For those without positions: more aggressive traders can try shorting at the current price with a stop-loss above 540. For a safer approach, wait until it breaks below 520 before shorting again.

One thing to watch: if the hourly chart suddenly closes above 542 (upper Bollinger Band), shorts should quickly cut losses and reassess the market.

In short, trading is about following the trend, not betting on the bottom. Currently, technical, on-chain, and news signals all point downward. Instead of guessing where the bottom is, it's better to respect the market’s actual movement. I will continue to monitor on-chain activity; once the main players start accumulating signals, my strategy should be adjusted. $ZEC