At 3:00 AM Beijing time, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of the 2025 end-of-year policy meeting, a document that could directly determine the upcoming rhythm of the crypto market.

From the current trend, the market faces three major uncertainties:

**Continued Hawkish Interest Rate Policy**
The threshold for rate cuts is higher than most people imagine. The 3.50%-3.75% interest rate range is likely to be maintained for a longer period, as the Fed's policy focus remains on combating inflation and balancing employment. Relying on rate cuts to stimulate the market? Probably not in the short term.

**The Largest Internal Disagreement in Nearly Forty Years**
Although the voting appears to be quite unified on the surface, the meeting minutes reveal a different story—at least 7 members strongly opposed any hints of rate cuts. The battle between hawks and doves is much more intense than the surface numbers suggest, with hawkish positions currently prevailing.

**Market Expectations for Rate Cut Timing Continually Pushed Back**
Originally hoping for a rate cut cycle starting in March 2026, it now seems to be delayed further. For the crypto market, accustomed to a loose liquidity environment, this is indeed a significant pressure.

The future direction of BTC and ETH largely depends on whether this meeting's minutes can lead to a market re-pricing.