End-of-year crypto market, some subtle changes are happening—and most people haven't realized it yet.

Signals that have emerged over the past two months are worth pondering: Bitcoin long-term holders have finally stopped selling for five consecutive months, while Ethereum whales are quietly making big moves. This is not just about transfer of holdings; it also reflects potential shifts in capital flow and market rhythm.

**Selling pressure finally eases, but the rebound hasn't arrived yet**

From July to December, long-term holders with over 155 days of holding decreased from 14.8 million coins to 14.3 million coins. It seems like a slight decline, but what does it mean? The continuous distribution chain has been completely broken. This is a good sign for the market—selling pressure from bears is bleeding out.

But don’t celebrate too early. During the same period, BTC spot ETF outflows reached $782 million in Christmas week, and the premium on a major exchange remains negative, with FUD surging in market sentiment. So the situation is: easing selling pressure ≠ immediate rebound, it only indicates that the bearish momentum is weakening.

**Ethereum whales’ silent positioning**

The most interesting activity comes from Ethereum. Since December 26, large holders with over 1,000 ETH have been aggressively accumulating—short-term absorption of 120,000 ETH, worth about $354 million.

Even more noteworthy is that these whales now control 70% of the circulating ETH, and this proportion continues to rise. What does this imply? Smart money is betting early, while the market is still debating whether Bitcoin will continue to fall.

**Market structure is quietly changing**

By observing this year’s market rhythm, an important phenomenon emerges: after Bitcoin surged to 126,000 in October, whales started significantly transferring out holdings, followed by a correction of over 30%. We used to say "whale activity = bottom signal," but now the rules have changed.

Entering 2025, ETFs and institutional quantitative trading have become dominant forces. This means whale accumulation no longer necessarily signals an imminent bottom; it’s a more complex game—funds are slowly absorbing, then suddenly activating at a certain moment. The market is becoming more like a "bull in bear’s clothing."

**What do the data say?**

Overall: Bitcoin’s selling pressure is easing (a positive sign), but ETF fund outflows continue (a negative sign), Ethereum whales are still accumulating strongly, and market sentiment remains full of FUD (which is exactly the environment the main players prefer).

From the perspective of capital flow and whale movements, Ethereum might actually become an unexpected dark horse at the start of 2026. After all, while everyone is watching Bitcoin, smart money has already quietly shifted tracks.