2025-12-31 04:25:52

$BTC $ZEC $DOGE

【Market Sentiment Shift】Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations Significantly Shrink

According to the latest CME Federal Funds Futures data, market perceptions of the Federal Reserve's policy have undergone a dramatic change. The probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged in January next year is as high as 85.1%, while the chance of a 25 basis point rate cut is only 14.9%. But that's not the most painful part—by March, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut drops below 50% to 45.2%, while the probability of no change rises to 48.3%. A continuous 50 basis point rate cut? That's basically unlikely, with less than a 7% chance.

In other words, the "easing cycle" that the market once pinned hopes on may be falling apart.

**What does this mean?**

A high-interest-rate environment will persist longer. Liquidity tightening is not just a theoretical risk but a real ongoing trend. The sensitive nerve in the crypto world has already been triggered—can the previous rebound withstand this "macro headwind"? The question is becoming more complicated.

Some suggest a shift in policy might happen in spring next year, but based on these data, that may just be wishful thinking on the market’s part. Risk assets face a new round of volatility testing, and even the positive news of Bitcoin ETF approval seems somewhat fragile in the face of macro pressures.

**What should we do?**

In the face of such a situation, some choose to seize opportunities and bet on a policy shift; others prefer to stay on the sidelines, waiting for clearer signals. Both strategies carry risks—being overly optimistic might lead to missed opportunities, while excessive pessimism could cause missed rebounds. Data changes daily, and there are no absolute answers in the market.

What is your choice?

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AirdropCollector

· 13h ago

85% chance to remain unchanged? Then my spring dream is shattered.

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NftRegretMachine

· 13h ago

85% chance to maintain interest rates? Oh no, there's really no rate cut now, the easing cycle is completely shattered. The spring turnaround story has long been tired of hearing; it's always the same narrative, and every time it gets proven wrong. What’s the use of a Bitcoin ETF? The macro environment is so bad, all the positive signals are just paper tigers. Instead of guessing the market, it's better to wait for a clear signal before taking action. Missing out or getting caught in a false rebound—neither is comfortable. This wave is really a test of mental resilience.

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LiquidatorFlash

· 13h ago

85.1% probability remains unchanged, this data is really eye-catching, the easing dream is shattered 50 basis points rate cut has a 7% probability, basically a gamble High interest rates still need to be endured, liquidity tightening risk is evident, the liquidation threshold needs to be raised Spring shift? I think it's unlikely, the market is too optimistic Let's wait and see, wait for two more weeks of data before taking action

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CryptoTarotReader

· 13h ago

Spring shift? Laughing to death, this is just psychological comfort for myself. Forget it, forget it, better to stockpile coins first and see how the Federal Reserve messes around. No rate cut? Then I'll wait for cheaper chips, anyway there's no use rushing. 50 basis points are gone, which means good days really have to wait... Hold on to your coins. As soon as this data came out, I knew it, things won't be so comfortable next.

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