2025 the last trading day, the global financial markets are entering the closing phase, while the crypto market is gathering strength in a strange calm.

Overnight trading has been oscillating within a narrow range, with both bulls and bears forming a fragile balance near key price levels—neither side wants to be the first to strike, and this deadlock directly affects whether 2026 will open higher.

Just look at the performance of mainstream coins. Bitcoin is currently testing around $88,500 repeatedly, having surged to $89,400 in the morning, only to be pushed down to $87,200 shortly after, with a daily fluctuation of over $2,000. Ethereum is even more stagnant, hovering around $2,972, with a trading range between $2,916 and $3,004, and its market cap remains stable around $359.6 billion.

The entire market volume is noticeably sluggish, with the 24-hour total trading volume shrinking by about 12% compared to recent averages—typical end-of-year cautiousness, with large funds observing quietly.

So what is driving this market? Mainly three forces are competing. First is liquidity: this morning, the Federal Reserve injected $16 billion into the banking system through overnight repurchase agreements, the second-highest scale since the COVID-19 pandemic began. This move indeed alleviated the seasonal liquidity tension at year-end and gave a boost to risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Second are the policy and data gameplays, but given the sensitive year-end timing and generally low market participation, any unexpected event could be the last straw that breaks the camel’s back.