2025-12-31 04:21:14

Yesterday, BTC reached 3057, leaving a long upper shadow, but today it has been hovering around 2964. This decline is really disappointing. Grayscale recently announced a bullish prediction for 2026, claiming that the demand for store of value combined with improved regulation could trigger a market rally. But what happened? BTC only touched 89000 before plunging, and ETH is even worse—barely warmed up at the 3000 level before being pushed back below the Bollinger Band middle line.

On the surface, funds seem abundant—Tether suddenly minted 1 billion USDT on the Tron chain. This should be a signal of heavy liquidity injection, right? But a closer look at the market reveals the truth: the trading volume is only 1.21 million, with a net outflow of 280,000. It’s a classic case of funds claiming to be coming in but actually fleeing.

Talking with quantitative teams in the industry, I understand that now institutional players are mainly playing the position game to catch swings. The sell-off at 3050 yesterday was triggered by an automatic take-profit order from a certain asset management firm. They bought the dip at around 2888, earning nearly 200 points before exiting. If it were you, you'd run too.

The technical picture also tells a story. RSI is oscillating in a neutral to slightly low zone, and the J value of KDJ is almost flat, indicating that the short-term decline has largely been digested. But MACD is still in a death cross heading downward, so don’t expect too much from a rebound. The lower band of the Bollinger Bands is at 2944. Yesterday morning, it touched 2960 and then rebounded. There is indeed some buying at this level, but it’s mostly short-term speculators and small traders, unable to influence the big trend.

Why is the market so stubborn? The key is a major event happening tomorrow: 48 countries will launch the CARF crypto asset reporting framework. Simply put, from now on, the tax authorities will know exactly how much you earn from trading cryptocurrencies. This regulatory expectation is gradually changing market participants’ risk pricing.

BTC-0,67%

ETH0,37%

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ZkSnarker

· 19h ago

ngl the CARF thing is actually the real plot twist here... well technically speaking, institutions already priced in the surveillance, but retail's still doing the surprised pikachu face. imagine if people spent half as much time understanding tax frameworks as they do chart watching lol

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ShibaMillionairen't

· 20h ago

Grayscale's prediction was really disappointing, and in the end, they ran faster than anyone else. Funds are shouting loudly while bodies are fleeing, this trick has been played for three years. After CARF came, there was no privacy in trading cryptocurrencies anymore, this is the real killer move. Institutions exploit retail investors mainly through this point. When will we turn the tables? The lower band of the Bollinger Bands can't hold, below 2944 it's free fall. Grayscale's prediction is even less accurate than my dreams, lol. 48 countries banded together, tax authorities are starting to take it seriously. It's time to consider clearing out those who should be cleared.

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LiquidatedThrice

· 20h ago

Grayscale's prediction this time is really 🤡, no funds have actually come in. Who can't just shout slogans? Institutions make quick money and then run, while we small investors are still here taking the hit. After CARF arrives, I think everyone will really settle down, and my crypto trading record will be crystal clear. If this position drops any further, I might have to sell too, to avoid losing everything.

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LiquidationHunter

· 20h ago

The Gray Scale narrative has long become tiresome; it's not the first time we've been manipulated. The funding situation has been exposed; even the minting frenzy can't save this dead trading volume. Institutions chase quick profits and then run, while retail investors like us are still debating the rebound potential—this gap is not small at all. Once the CARF framework was introduced, the tax authorities started monitoring our accounts. This wave is indeed chilling. Don't expect anyone to come to the rescue at the 2944 level; small investors taking over won't last long.

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LowCapGemHunter

· 20h ago

The Gray Scale prophecy really is hilarious; the king of trash talk is still the same trash talker. Funds have escaped, USDT is being minted wildly but real gold and silver haven't kept up. I've seen this trick too many times. Institutions sell at 200 points, and we're still here picking up the bag, which is really disappointing. The MACD death cross faces strong resistance; a rebound is an opportunity to short, don't be fooled. Once the tax framework is implemented, how many people will have to cut losses and run? That's the real negative news.

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TokenomicsTherapist

· 20h ago

The grayscale bull market prediction was a total flop, and BTC gave a loud slap in the face. The capital chatterbox, wildly minting USDT but net outflows, a classic fake-out. Institutions are just like this, pulling out at 200 basis points, anyone would have to retreat. Once the CARF framework is activated, tax authorities will be watching even more closely, no wonder the market is so awkward.

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