#预测市场 The probability of winning on Gemini via Kalshi has risen from 30% at the beginning of the year to 86%, and this shift in data is worth noting. A trading volume of $14 million indicates active market participation, while the sharp fluctuations in probability reflect significant adjustments in market perception of the AI landscape.

From the perspective of on-chain prediction markets, such trades typically gather participants with deep industry insights. The continuous increase in Gemini's probability may mirror actual progress such as model performance iterations and ecosystem deployment this year. ChatGPT's probability has dropped from 41% to 8% since the beginning of the year, with the steepest decline, reflecting a market reassessment of OpenAI's relative advantage.

It is worth noting the settlement mechanism—based on objective data from the LM Arena leaderboard. This means prediction market participants are voting with real money on the definition of "best," and their final standings are validated by objective rankings. From an investment research perspective, these prediction markets can reveal capital flows in the AI sector, often reflecting market expectations earlier than public opinion.