2025-12-31 03:40:52

#美联储降息 The Gold Market Starts 2026 with Cautious Optimism

From the fundamentals, gold indeed has several supporting factors gaining strength. The Fed's rate cut expectations are gradually being realized, and the low-interest-rate environment directly reduces the opportunity cost of holding gold—this is a tangible positive for the long-term appeal of precious metals. Coupled with the ongoing Russia-Ukraine tensions, safe-haven funds continue to flow into gold; additionally, since 2022, global central banks have been accelerating their gold accumulation, and institutions are increasing their allocation to hard assets. This purchasing power remains quite resilient.

On the technical side, things are a bit complex. In the short term, gold prices have been consolidating, with moving averages and Bollinger Bands on the 1-hour chart tightly clustered, indicating a tug-of-war. The key support level is at 4310-4325, while resistance is tight at 4390-4400. Later, gold prices broke below the important levels of 4500 and 4400, with the lowest touching around 4300, indicating a weakening trend. Currently, gold is in a rebound phase, with 4400-4418 becoming the new resistance zone; on the 4-hour chart, this range's lower boundary coincides with Fibonacci retracement levels and the 100-hour moving average, making it a reasonable point to establish long positions.

What is a more reliable approach? When gold falls back to the 4340-4350 range, decisively going long is the preferred strategy; if it continues to retreat to around 4320/25, you can add to your position, with a stop-loss around 4310. The initial target is 4380; if broken, keep an eye on the 4400-4420 resistance zone. If you have already set up long positions earlier, a pullback to the 4310-4325 range can also be used to add, with an initial target of 4350, and if it breaks above, look for 4360.

Short opportunities are not absent. When gold hits resistance at 4390-4400 and then drops, consider a light short position; the first target is 4350, and if it breaks below, continue to watch for 4340.

Don’t get caught up in daily fluctuations; only those who can withstand the volatility can enjoy the benefits of the trend. Stable compound growth is the key to long-term success.

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LiquidationWatcher

· 1h ago

Expectations of rate cuts + safe-haven demand, gold's fundamental support is indeed stable this round; it all depends on whether the technicals can break through the 4400 resistance.

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MidnightTrader

· 10h ago

Starting to organize again, full of tension. This wave of market movement tests patience.

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RetailTherapist

· 2025-12-31 04:05

It's the same old bullish fundamental rhetoric, but the real story is that the technicals are a mess. --- Repeated friction between 4310 and 4400, in other words, no clear direction. Nobody should expect to make quick money. --- Interest rate cut expectations? I think the Federal Reserve is saying one thing publicly and doing another privately. Don't be fooled by the fundamentals. --- The central bank's gold hoarding is their game; retail investors following the trend will always suffer some losses before learning their lesson. --- That barrier at 4340 hasn't been broken again. The rebound is weak, and the bulls' morale is collapsing right now. --- Instead of obsessing over Fibonacci numbers, it's better to first understand how much drawdown you can withstand. --- Stop loss at 4310. It sounds easy, but once triggered, you'll regret it. That's the fate of retail investors. --- The "try shorting" tactic is the most dangerous. Light positions often turn into heavy ones. I've seen too many people like that.

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GasFeeCrier

· 2025-12-31 04:04

It's the same pattern again, with 4310-4350 repeatedly tugging back and forth. When will it break through?

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HodlVeteran

· 2025-12-31 03:48

Bro, this analysis is quite detailed. But every time I see these numbers, I think of the blood and tears of that time I went all-in on gold and got trapped. Really... Following the chart is correct, but with the market oscillating so wildly, I wouldn't dare to add more positions.

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LiquidityWizard

· 2025-12-31 03:43

This wave of gold indeed has logic, but the 4300-4350 range is repeatedly tugged back and forth. It feels necessary to be patient and wait for signals, otherwise it's easy to be shaken out.

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