TAO is currently around $225-226, and recent technical performance has been clearly weak. The price has fallen below all major moving averages—EMA20 at $237, EMA50 at $274, and EMA200 at $324. This situation indicates that medium- to long-term upward momentum has been completely exhausted. The RSI is only 38.6, reflecting a continued market weakness.

From the 4-hour chart, the $229 level forms the upper band of the Bollinger Bands, serving as a key technical resistance. Additionally, a large number of short liquidation orders have accumulated in the $230-232 range, and profit-taking pressure from longs is also quite evident. It appears that short-term price breakthroughs of this barrier will be quite challenging.

More importantly, the capital flow signals—funding rates are positive, indicating that bullish sentiment is still burning money. The 24-hour data shows longs have liquidated $80,000, while shorts only $27,000. This imbalance suggests that longs are indeed overly crowded. Looking at the OBV indicator across 1-hour, 4-hour, and daily levels, all show negative values, indicating that although the price is rising, trading volume has not kept pace, presenting a classic bearish divergence.

The liquidation risk warrants close attention. At the $217 level, there are $1.6 million in long liquidation orders, and at $212, even $2.6 million. If the price breaks below the multiple support level at $221 (also breaking through the moving averages and the middle band of Bollinger Bands), it could easily trigger a chain reaction of stop-losses and liquidations.

From a trading perspective, one could wait for the price to test resistance at $226-228 for rejection signals—such as long upper shadows or volume-price divergence. If confirmed, consider entering a position at $227 with 40% of the planned size, then adding 30% at $228.5, keeping total position size within 4%. The exit strategy could be to close 60% at $217, then the remaining 30% at $212.

However, risk warnings are essential—short-term MACD on the 1-hour and 15-minute charts is still expanding positively, and shorting against the short-term trend is inherently high risk. If Grayscale’s S-1 application shows positive progress or other bullish catalysts emerge, the price could quickly break through $230, triggering stop-losses. Additionally, the narrative of supply tightening after the halving still has some influence in the market; it’s best to wait for clear technical rejection signals before acting. Avoid premature bottoms or shorts. Keep an eye on open interest changes—if it continues to rise while funding rates remain positive, consider exiting early.